生命周期视角下房地产企业财务风险预警与防范分析
A Study on Early Warning and Prevention of Financial Risks of Real Estate Enterprises from Life Cycle Perspective

房地产行业在我国经济中占据主导地位的同时也面临着较高的财务风险，将生命周期理论引入到房地产企业的财务风险预警研究中，既有助于降低房地产企业发生财务危机的可能，又对该领域的现有研究起到补充作用。通过对不同生命周期阶段的房地产企业建立Logistic财务风险预警模型发现，各阶段的房地产企业往往面临不同程度的财务风险，影响企业发生财务风险的因素也有显著差异。处于成长期阶段的房地产企业的财务风险关键保护因素为净资产收益率，成熟期阶段企业财务风险的关键保护因素为营业利润率，衰退期阶段的企业财务风险的发生会提前反映在审计意见类型中。最后，针对各生命周期阶段的企业发展特点，为我国房地产上市企业分别提出了成长期进行外源融资并打造核心竞争力、成熟期不断拓展新业务、衰退期注重采用保守型融资策略的建议。
The real estate industry plays a dominant role in China’s economy, at the same time, it also faces high financial risks. Introducing the life-cycle theory into the study of financial risk early warning of real estate enterprises helps to reduce the possibility of financial crises in real estate enterprises and complement the existing research in this field. By establishing a logistic financial risk early warning model for real estate enterprises at different life cycle stages, it finds that real estate enterprises at each stage often face different degrees of financial risk, and the factors affecting the occurrence of financial risk are significantly different. The key protective factor of financial risk for real estate enterprises in the growth stage is the ROE. The key protective factor of financial risk for enterprises in the maturity stage is the Operating Profit Ratio. And the occurrence of financial risk for enterprises in the recession stage is reflected in the type of audit opinion in advance. Finally, given the characteristics of enterprise development in each life-cycle stage, recommendations are made for China’s listed real estate enterprises to conduct exogenous financing and build core competitiveness in the growth stage, continuously expand new business in the maturity stage, and focus on adopting conservative financing strategies in the recession stage, respectively.