不同突变检验方法在萧濉新河流域径流序列中的研究
Study on Runoff Sequence of Xiaosuixin River Basin by Different Mutation Test Methods

径流序列的突变性研究对于探讨气候变化与人类活动下的水文循环的演变规律具有重要的意义。本文以安徽省萧濉新河流域1973~2022年径流量为例，采用T方法、有序聚类法、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall检验法、Yamamoto法、Pettitt法等6种方法对比分析水文序列突变特性，结果表明：1973~2022年流域年径流序列的突变点为1987年、1995年、2010年，T方法、有序聚类法、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall检验法、Pettitt法结论基本一致，其中Mann-Kendall检验法检测突变点最精确，包括了其他检验方法的所有结果，此方法也反映出径流序列的趋势性。
The study of the abrupt change of runoff series is of great significance to the study of the evolution of hydrological cycle under climate change and human activities. Taking the runoff of Xiaosuixin River basin in Anhui Province from 1973 to 2022 as an example, six methods, including T method, ordinal clustering, sliding t-test, Mann-Kendall test, Yamamoto method and Pettitt method, were used to analyze the characteristics of hydrological sequence mutation, the results showed that the abrupt change points of annual runoff series from 1973 to 2022 were 1987, 1995 and 2010. The conclusions of T method, ordered Clustering Method, sliding t test, Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt method were basically consistent, the Mann-Kendall test is the most accurate method to detect the mutation point, which includes all the results of other test methods. This method also reflects the trend of runoff series.