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基于贝叶斯模型的中国房地产投资发展研究
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Abstract:
房地产投资的发展程度会受到很多因素的影响，而且这些因素并不是单独存在，是相互组成一个复杂的系统共同影响着中国大陆各地区的房地产投资发展在时空上演进、变化，本文运用BYM、FBM两种贝叶斯时空模型研究分析房地产投资的发展程度，分析各个影响因子的影响程度，最后根据DIC值评估两种模型的拟合优劣。除此之外，本文运用FBM模型研究了2012~2021年中国大陆地区各个省、自治区、直辖市房地产投资的总体发展热度以及局部发展趋势。
The development degree of real estate investment will be affected by many factors, and these factors do not exist alone. They form a complex system and jointly affect the evolution and change of real estate investment development in Chinese Mainland in time and space. This paper uses BYM and FBM Bayesian space-time models to study and analyze the development degree of real estate investment and the impact degree of each influencing factor, Finally, evaluate the fitting quality of the two models based on the DIC value. In addition, this paper uses the FBM model to study the overall development heat and local development trend of real estate investment in Chinese Mainland from 2012 to 2021.
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