中国资源型城市可持续财政自给能力提升路径研究
Research on the Path to Enhancing Sustainable Fiscal Self-Sufficiency for Resource-Based Cities in China

在全球化与数字化时代的大背景下，中国各级政府尤其是资源型城市均面临财政可持续性方面的挑战。资源依赖和单一产业结构使得这些城市在经济环境变化下面临更为严峻的试验。本研究旨在构建评估中国资源型城市可持续财政自给能力的测度模型与影响因素分析。基于79个资源城市2015~2021年的面板数据分析，结果发现：地区生产总值的持续增长是财政自给能力增强的关键因素；产业结构的高级化显著提升了财政自给能力，突显了产业转型升级的重要作用；反观财政分权，其效应呈现双刃剑特性，适度的财政分权确有其积极意义，但当过度时，则可能降低财政稳健性。对不同成长阶段的资源型城市，研究提出了相应的政策建议：成长型城市应减少对第二产业的依赖，优化税收结构；成熟型城市和再生型城市需强化第二产业内部的技术革新；衰退型城市则应关注经济多元化和产业重塑。对所有资源型城市而言，应促进经济增长与提高财政效率，以及平衡中央与地方财政关系是保障财政自给能力的关键策略。
Against the backdrop of the era of globalization and digitalization, the challenges are faced by the Chinese government at all levels, especially in resource-based cities, in terms of fiscal sustainability. The dependence on resources and a single-industry structure make these cities face more severe tests when economic environments change. This study aims to construct a model for measuring and analyzing the factors influencing the sustainable fiscal self-sufficiency of China’s resource-based cities. Based on the panel data analysis of 79 resource-based cities from 2015 to 2021, the results show that: the continuous growth of regional GDP is the key factor in enhancing fiscal self-sufficiency; the sophistication of the industrial structure significantly improves fiscal self-sufficiency, highlighting the important role of industrial transformation and upgrading; in contrast, fiscal decentralization has a double-edged sword effect—moderate decentralization indeed has its positive implications, but excessive decentralization may reduce fiscal robustness. For cities at different stages of development reliant on resources, the study presents corresponding policy recommendations: emerging cities should reduce their dependency on secondary industries and enhance the optimization of their tax structures; mature and regenerating cities need to strengthen technological innovations within secondary industries; declining cities should focus on economic diversification and the restructuring of industries. For all resource-based cities, the key strategies to ensure financial self-sufficiency are to promote economic growth and improve fiscal efficiency, as well as to balance the fiscal relationship between central and local governments.