基于灰色关联分析法的上海市基本医疗保险基金支出的影响因素分析
Analysis of Influencing Factors of Shanghai Basic Medical Insurance Fund Expenditure Based on Grey Relational Analysis

基本医疗保险基金是医保制度的基础，关系到医保制度政策目标的实现。本文运用灰色关联分析法，分别从社会经济发展水平、人口结构、医保政策和卫生服务供给这四个方面选取了指标以探究影响上海市基本医疗保险基金指出的主要因素。研究发现，社会经济发展水平层面的指标对上海市基本医疗保险基金支出的影响最大，其中上海市政府卫生支出与基本医疗保险基金的支出的关联度最高；在医保政策层面上，住院病人人均医药费用与基本医保基金的关联性高于门诊病人次均医药费用；人口结构层面，上海市65岁以上人口占比也影响着医保基金支出；卫生服务供给因素对上海市基本医疗保险基金的影响相对较弱。
The basic medical insurance fund is the foundation of the medical insurance system and is related to the realization of the policy objectives of the medical insurance system. In this paper, grey correlation analysis is used to select indicators from four aspects: social and economic development level, population structure, medical insurance policy and health service supply to explore the main factors affecting the basic medical insurance fund in Shanghai. The results show that the indicators of social and economic development level have the greatest influence on the expenditure of Shanghai basic medical insurance fund, and the correlation between the expenditure of Shanghai municipal government health and the expenditure of basic medical insurance fund is the highest. On the level of medical insurance policy, the correlation between the per capita medical expenses of inpatients and the basic medical insurance fund is higher than that of outpatients. In terms of population structure, the proportion of people over 65 years old in Shanghai also affects the expenditure of medical insurance fund. The influence of health service supply factors on the basic medical insurance fund in Shanghai is relatively weak.