碳达峰战略下全国统一碳排放权交易市场配额总量设定及分配建议
Suggestions on Setting and Distributing the Total Quota of the National Unified Carbon Emission Trading Market under the Carbon Peak Strategy

碳排放权交易市场通过提供经济激励、促进清洁能源发展等方式，推动企业减排，助力实现碳达峰、碳中和。在我国的“双碳”目标背景下，加快全国统一碳排放权交易市场的建设，并明确其配额分配机制，已成为政府积极应对气候变化、推动经济绿色发展的关键举措。本文基于碳达峰目标的明确定义，运用全国碳排放总量相关的历史数据，通过一系列建模方法对全国碳排放总量进行科学预测，并在此基础上对各省份对应的碳排放配额进行合理分配，对碳市场的交易制度和监管措施提出了一系列切实可行的建议，为我国设计、建设、发展碳市场，并在“双碳”目标下迈向更加可持续和低碳的未来提供了一定的参考。
The carbon emissions trading market, by providing economic incentives and promoting clean energy development, drives corporate emission reductions, facilitating the achievement of carbon peaking and neutrality. Against the backdrop of China’s “dual-carbon” goals, accelerating the nationwide unified construction of the carbon emissions trading market and clarifying its quota allocation mechanism have become key measures for the government to actively address climate change and promote green economic development. This paper, based on the clear definition of the carbon peaking goal, utilizes historical data related to the national carbon emissions, employs modeling methods to scientifically predict the total national carbon emissions, and subsequently allocates reasonable quotas to each province. Practical suggestions for the trading system and regulatory measures of the carbon market are proposed, providing valuable insights for the design, construction, and development of the carbon market in China.