数字普惠金融是否推动居民消费“扩容提质”——来自省级面板数据的证据
Does Digital Inclusive Financing Promote “Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement” of Household Consumption?—Evidence from Provincial Panel Data

消费是国民经济的重要组成部分，是人民生活水平的重要体现。近年来，随着我国经济结构调整的深入，以消费为代表的内需成为拉动我国经济增长的重要动力。如何合理有效地促进消费增长，成为我国经济发展中的时代命题。本文基于2012~2021年的中国省级面板数据，实证分析数字普惠金融在推动居民消费“扩容提质”中的作用。研究发现：1) 数字普惠金融能显著推动居民消费扩容提质。在回归分析中，数字普惠金融对居民消费扩容提质的系数均在5%的显著水平下显著为正值。数字普惠金融对居民消费扩容的解释力度要强于对消费提质的解释力度。2) 数字普惠金融推动居民消费扩容提质的作用存在区域差异性，其中东部地区，数字普惠金融更多地推动居民消费扩容，但对消费提质的推动并不显著，在西部地区恰好相反。3) 在不同分位数水平下，数字普惠金融对居民消费扩容的回归系数并不显著为正，在分位数低于25%的水平下，回归系数显著为正，高于25%的水平，回归系数不显著，说明数字普惠金融对居民消费扩容的推动作用呈现非线性特点。数字普惠金融对居民消费提质的影响具有稳定的线性特质。通过实证分析，更加详细地展示了数字普惠金融对居民消费扩容提质的不同作用，有助于政策的进一步调整和深化。
Consumption is an important part of a national economy. In recent years, as Chinas economic restructuring deepened, domestic demand represented by consumption has become an essential drive to fuel the economic growth in China. How to promote consumption growth reasonably and effectively has become the major task of this era. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2012 to 2021, this paper empirically analyzes the role of digital inclusive financing in promoting the capacity expansion and quality improvement of household consumption. The findings are as follows: 1) Digital inclusive financing can significantly promote capacity expansion and quality improvement of household consumption. In the regression analysis, the coefficient of digital inclusive financing to expansion and improvement of household consumption is significantly positive at the significant level of 5%. The explanation of the expansion of household consumption by digital inclusive financing is stronger than the explanation of the improvement of consumption. 2) There are regional differences in the role of digital inclusive financing in promoting the capacity expansion and quality improvement of household consumption. In the eastern regions, digital inclusive financing better promotes the expansion, but its effect on the improvement is not significant, which is just the opposite in the western regions. 3) At different quantile levels, the regression coefficient of digital inclusive financing to capacity expansion of household consumption is not significantly positive. When the quantile is less than 25%, the coefficient is significantly positive; when it is more than 25%, the efficient is not significantly positive, which indicates that the impact of digital inclusive financing on capacity expansion of household consumption presents non-linear characteristics, but the influence on quality improvement shows stable and linear characteristics. Through empirical analysis, this paper details the different effects of digital inclusive financing on the capacity expansion and