基于双重差分法的精准扶贫政策实施效绩研究——以重庆市38个县为例
Research on Implementation Performance of Precision Poverty Alleviation Policy Based on DID—Taking 38 Counties in Chongqing City as an Example

2023年以来，在党中央的高度重视和推动下，我国的精准扶贫工作已经取得长足的成果。重庆市地处我国西南部，集大城市、大农村、大库区、大山区和少数民族聚居地区于一体，为我国扶贫工作中最为艰苦、重要和关键的地方。重庆市于2020年取得脱贫成果，全市贫困发生率降至0.12%，区域性整体贫困得到了有效解决。本文基于重庆市38个县2010年至2020年的宏观经济数据，采用双重差分法分析和评估精准扶贫政策对重庆市消除贫困的影响。结果表明：贫困县经济发展受地区人均生产总值、产业结构影响，在消除影响因素后贫困县的减贫效应比非贫困县高了14.5%；精准扶贫政策显著促进贫困县经济的发展，且效果呈逐步增长的趋势；精准扶贫政策对重庆市贫困县资本发展、产业结构优化有推动作用。
Since 2020, with the great attention and promotion of the Party Central Committee, my country’s targeted poverty alleviation work has achieved considerable results. Chongqing is located in the southwest of China, integrating large cities, rural areas, reservoir areas, mountainous areas, and areas inhabited by ethnic minorities. It is the most difficult, important and critical place in China's poverty alleviation work. In 2020, poverty alleviation achievements were achieved, and the poverty incidence rate in the city decreased to 0.12%, effectively addressing regional overall poverty. Based on the macroeconomic data of 38 counties in Chongqing City from 2010 to 2020, this paper uses the DID to analyze and evaluate the impact of precision poverty alleviation policy on poverty alleviation in Chongqing City. The results show that the economic development of poor counties is affected by the actual area’s per capita GDP and industrial structure. After eliminating the influencing factors, the poverty reduction effect of poor counties is 14.5% higher than that of non-poor counties; Precision poverty alleviation policies have significantly promoted the economic development of impoverished counties, and their effects have shown a gradual increase. The precision poverty alleviation policies have promoted the capital development and industrial structure optimization of impoverished counties in Chongqing City.