人均收入、房屋竣工面积及货币政策对重庆房价影响的VAR模型分析——基于重庆1999~2018年度数据
VAR Model of Per Capita Income, Housing Completion Area and Monetary Policy’s Influence on Housing Price in Chongqing—Based on Annual Data of Chongqing from 1999 to 2018

近年来我国各地城市的房地产价格主要趋势向上，但也随着宏观环境尤其是货币政策的变化起伏。而这种价格的波动，短期内主要受到货币政策的影响，长期来看受需求供给的双重影响，在生活水平的提高与投资需求的推动下，一二线城市的房地产价格金融资产属性凸显，房地产开发面积迅速扩大，而供给的扩大反向又将作用于房价。本文主要以重庆城镇居民人均收入、重庆房屋竣工面积、广义货币供应量为因子，通过建立VAR模型，研究对近年来较热的新一线城市，重庆房价的影响。结果证明四组变量间存在长期协整关系，并表明近二十几年来重庆城镇居民人均收入的上涨与重庆房价的上升有显著的因果关系，广义货币供应量及房屋竣工面积对房价的波动也存在较大的贡献率。
In recent years, the main trend of real estate price in cities around China is upward, but it also rises and falls with the change of macro environment, especially the change of monetary policy. And this kind of price fluctuations, mainly under the influence of monetary policy in the short term, long term demand supply dual influence, the improvement of living standards and the investment demand, driven by a second-tier cities real estate prices highlighted financial asset attributes, real estate development area is expanding rapidly, and the expansion of supply reverse will work on house prices. In this paper, the per capita income of urban residents in Chongqing, housing completion area in Chongqing and broad money supply are taken as factors. Through the establishment of VAR model, the impact of housing price in Chongqing, a hot new first-tier city in recent years, is studied. It proves that there is a long-term co-integration relationship among the four groups of variables, and it also shows that the increase of per capita income of urban residents in Chongqing in the past two decades has a significant causal relationship with the rise of housing price in Chongqing, and the broad money supply and the completed area of housing also contribute a lot to the fluctuation of housing price.