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基于灰色GM (1, 1)模型的生鲜农产品冷链物流需求影响因素及预测研究
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Abstract:
采用灰色关联分析方法对2013~2022年生鲜农产品冷链物流需求与生鲜农产品产量、交通固定资产投资、全国居民可支配收入、货物运输量、冷藏车保有量等相关影响因素的关联度进行分析，并利用GM (1, 1)模型对全国2023~2027年生鲜农产品冷链物流需求量进行预测。结果显示，生鲜农产品产量关联度最高，农产品冷链物流需求量将会持续增长。此外，从生鲜农产品供给、强化冷链设施建设因素方面，提出完善生鲜农产品冷链物流的建议。
Gray correlation analysis is used to analyze the correlation between the demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products and the production of fresh agricultural products, investment in fixed assets in transportation, disposable income of the national residents, cargo transportation volume, and the number of reefer trucks, etc., and the GM (1, 1) model is used to forecast the demand for cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products in China in the period of 2023~2027. The results show that the production of fresh agricultural products has the highest correlation, and the cold chain logistics demand for agricultural products will continue to grow. In addition, from the supply of fresh agricultural products and strengthening the construction of cold chain facilities, it puts forward suggestions to improve the cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products.
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https://doi.org/10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2015.02.025 |
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