Decadal Forecasts of Large Earthquakes along the Northern San Andreas Fault System, California: Increased Activity on Regional Creeping Faults Prior to Major and Great Events
The three largest
earthquakes in northern California since 1849 were preceded by increased
decadal activity for moderate-size shocks along surrounding nearby faults.
Increased seismicity, double-difference precise locations of earthquakes
since 1968, geodetic data and fault offsets for the 1906 great shock are used
to re-examine the timing and locations of possible future large earthquakes.
The physical mechanisms of regional faults like the Calaveras, Hayward and Sargent, which exhibit creep, differ
from those of the northern San Andreas, which is currently locked and is not
creeping. Much decadal forerunning
activity occurred on creeping faults. Moderate-size earthquakes along those faults became more frequent as
stresses in the region increased in the latter part of the cycle of stress
restoration for major and great earthquakes along the San Andreas. They may be
useful for decadal forecasts. Yearly to decadal forecasts, however, are based
on only a few major to great events. Activity
along closer faults like that in the two years prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta shock
needs to be examined for possible yearly forerunning changes to large
plate boundary earthquakes. Geodetic observations
are needed to focus on identifying creeping faults close to the San
Andreas. The distribution of moderate-size earthquakes increased significantly
since 1990 along the Hayward fault but not
adjacent to the San Andreas fault to the south of San Francisco compared
to what took place in the decades prior to the
three major historic earthquakes in the region. It is now clear from a
re-examination of the 1989 mainshock that the increased level of moderate-size
shocks in the one to two preceding decades occurred on nearby East Bay faults.
Double-difference locations of small earthquakes provide structural
information about faults in the region, especially their depths. The
References
[1]
Mogi, K. (1969) Some Features of Recent Seismic Activity in and Near Japan (2) Activity before and after Great Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, 47, 395-417.
[2]
Mogi, K. (1981) Seismicity in Western Japan and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasting. In: Simpson, D.W. and Richards, P.G., Eds., Maurice Ewing Series, Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, Vol. 4, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 43-51. https://doi.org/10.1029/ME004p0043
[3]
Mogi, K. (1985) Earthquake Prediction. Academic Publishing, Tokyo.
[4]
Sykes, L.R. and Jaumé, S.C. (1990) Seismic Activity on Neighboring Faults as a Long-Term Precursor to Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nature, 348, 595-599. https://doi.org/10.1038/348595a0
[5]
Waldhauser, F. and Schaff, D.P. (2008) Large-Scale Relocation of Two Decades of Northern California Seismicity Using Cross-Correlation and Double-Difference Methods. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, B08311. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005479
[6]
Waldhauser, F. and Schaff, D.P. (2021) A Comprehensive Search for Repeating Earthquakes in Northern California: Implications for Fault Creep, Slip Rates, Slip Partitioning, and Transient Stress. Journal of Geophysical Research, 126, e2021J8022495. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022495
[7]
Zoback, M.L., Jachens, R. and Olson, J.A. (1999) Abrupt Along-Strike Change in Tectonic Style: San Andreas Fault Zone, San Francisco Peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 10719-10742. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JB900059
[8]
Sykes, L.R. (2021) Decadal Seismicity before Great Earthquakes—Strike-Slip Faults and Plate Interiors: Major Asperities and Low-Coupling Zones. International Journal of Geosciences, 12, 784-833. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2021.129044
[9]
Sykes, L.R. (2021) Decadal Seismicity Prior to Great Earthquakes at Subduction Zones: Roles of Major Asperities and Low-Coupling Zones. International Journal of Geosciences, 12, 845-926. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1600
[10]
Ekström, G., Nettles, M. and Dziewonski, A.M. (2012) The Global CMT Project 2004-2010: Centroid-Moment Tensors for 13,017 Earthquakes. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 200-201, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2012.04.002
[11]
Jaumé, S.C. and Sykes, L.R. (1996) Evolution of Moderate Seismicity in the San Francisco Bay region, 1850 to 1993: Seismicity Changes Related to the Occurrence of Large and Great Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 765-789. https://doi.org/10.1029/95JB02393
[12]
Ellsworth, W.L. (1990) Earthquake History, In: Wallace, R.E., Ed., The San Andreas Fault System, California, The United States Geological Survey, Reston, 1515.
[13]
Sykes, L.R. and Nishenko, S.K. (1984) Probabilities of Occurrence of Large Plate-Rupturing Earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California, 1983-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 89, 5905-5927. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05905
[14]
Sykes, L.R., Waldhauser, F. and Schaff, D. (2022) Intermediate-Term Seismic Precursors to the Loma Prieta California Earthquake of 1989. International. Journal of Geosciences, 13, 905-917. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2022.1310045
[15]
Beroza, G. (1991) Near-Source Modelling of the Loma Prieta Earthquake: Evidence for Heterogeneous Slip and Implications for Earthquake Hazard. Bulletin Seismological Society America, 81, 1603-1621.
[16]
Shaw, B.E., Carlson, J. M. and Langer, J.S. (1992) Patterns of Seismic Activity Preceding Large Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97, 497-488. https://doi.org/10.1029/91JB01796
[17]
Li, Y, Buürgman, R. and Taira, T. (2023) Spatiotemporal Variations of Surface Deformation, Shallow Creep Rate and Slip Partitioning between the San Andreas and Southern Calaveras Fault. Journal of Geophysical Research, 128, e2022JB025363. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025363
[18]
Toppozada, T.R. and Borchardt, G. (1998) Re-Evaluation of the 1836 “Hayward fault” and the 1838 San Andreas Fault Earthquakes. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 88, 140-159. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0880010140
[19]
Bürgman, R., et al. (2000) Earthquake Potential along the Northern Hayward Fault, California. Science, 289, 1178-1182. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5482.1178
[20]
Bürgman, R., et al. (2003) Decadal Creep-Rate Changes along the Hayward-Calaveras Fault Zone. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, 11 December 2003, G12A-01.
[21]
Reid, H.F. (1910) The Mechanics of the Earthquake, The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Report of the State Investigation Commission, Vol. 2, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington DC.
[22]
Wiemer, S. and Wyss, M. (2000) Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States and Japan. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 90, 859-869. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990114
[23]
Scholz, C.H. (1985) The Black Mountain Asperity: Seismic Hazard of the Southern San Francisco Peninsula, California. Geophysical Research Letters, 12, 717-719. https://doi.org/10.1029/GL012i010p00717
[24]
Parsons, T.E. (2002) Crustal Structure of the Coastal and Marine San Francisco Bay region, California. The United States Geological Survey, Reston. https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1658
[25]
Tuttle, M.P. and Sykes, L.R. (1992) Re-Evaluation of Several Large Historic Earthquakes in the Vicinity of Loma Prieta and Peninsular Segments of the San Andreas Fault, California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 82, 1802-1820.
[26]
Shaw, B.E. (2013) Earthquake Surface Slip-Length Data Is Fit by Constant Stress Drop and Is Useful for Seismic Hazard Analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103, 876-893. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110258
[27]
Thatcher, W, Marshall, G. and Lisowski, M (1997) Resolution of Fault Slip along the 470-Km-Rupture of the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and Its Implications. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 5353-5367. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JB03486
[28]
Lawson, A.C., Gilbert, G.K., et al. (1908) The California Earthquake of 1906. Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission. The Carnegie Institution of Washington DC.
[29]
Hall, N.T. (1984) Holocene History of the San Andreas Fault between Crystal Springs Reservoir and San Andreas Dam, San Mateo County, California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 74, 281-799.
[30]
Hall, N.T., Wright, R.H. and Clahan, K.B. (1999) Paleoseismic Studies of the San Francisco Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas Fault Zone Near Woodside, California. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 23215-23236.
[31]
Niemi, T.M. and Hall, N.T. (1992) Late Holocene Slip Rate and Recurrence of Great Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in Northern California. Geology, 20, 195-198. https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1992)020<0195:LHSRAR>2.3.CO;2
[32]
Prentice, C.S. and Ponti, D.J. (1997) Coseismic Deformation of the Wrights Tunnel During the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake: A Key to Understanding 1906 Fault Slip and 1989 Surface Ruptures in the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains, California. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 635-648. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JB02934
[33]
Aagaard, B.T, Blair, J.L., Boatwright, J, Garcia, S.H., et al. (2016) Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014-2043. The United States Geological Survey Fact Sheet 3020-3025. https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20163020
[34]
Lindh, S.G. (1983) Preliminary Assessment of Long-Term Probabilities for Large Earthquakes along Selected Segments of the San Andreas Fault System, California. The United States Geological Survey Open-File Report 83-63. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr8363
[35]
Thatcher, W. and Lisowski, M. (1987) Long-Term Seismic Potential of the San Andreas Fault Southeast of San Francisco. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92, 4771-4784. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB092iB06p04771
[36]
US Geological Survey Staff (1990) The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake: An Anticipated Event. Science, 247, 286-293. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.247.4940.286
[37]
Kelson, K., Lettis, W.R. and Lisowski, M. (1992) Distribution of Geologic Slip and Creep along Faults in the San Francisco Bay Region. Proceedings of the 2nd Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area, California, Special Publication, California Division Mines Geology, 31-38.
[38]
Borchardt, G., Hirschfeld, Lienkaemper, J.J., McClellan, P., et al. (1992) Proceedings 2nd Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area. California, Special Publication, California Division of Mines and Geology.
[39]
Funning, G.J., Sangha, S.S., Govorcin, M. and Bekaert, D. (2023) A Statewide Surface Fault Creep Model for California Derived from ARIA Sentinel-1 Standard Product Interferograms. Program Annual Meeting American Geophysical, Union, Abstract G12A-02.
[40]
Atwater, T.M. (1970) Implications of Plate Tectonics for the Cenozoic Tectonic Evolution of Western North America. Geological. Society of America Bulletin, 81, 3513-3536. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1970)81[3513:IOPTFT]2.0.CO;2
[41]
Dickinson, W.R. and Snyder, W.S. (1979) Geometry of Triple Junctions Related to San Andreas transform. Journal of Geophysical Research, 84, 561-572. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB02p00561
[42]
Atwater, T. and Stock, J. (1998) Pacific-North America Plate Tectonics of the Neogene Southwestern United States: An Update. International Geology Review, 40, 375-402. https://doi.org/10.1080/00206819809465216
[43]
Wakabayashi, J. (1999) Distribution of Displacement on and Evolution of a Young Transform Fault System: The Northern San Andreas Fault System, California. Tectonics, 18, 1245-1274. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999TC900049
[44]
Ward, S.N. (2000) San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A Step toward a Standard Physical Model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90, 370-386. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990026
[45]
Hardebeck, J.L., Felzer, K.R. and Michael A. J. (2008) Improved Tests Reveal That the Accelerating Moment Release Hypothesis Is Statistically Insignificant. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005410
