中国碳排放达峰省区的碳脱钩水平及驱动因素研究
Study on the Carbon Decoupling Level and Driving Factors in the Provinces with Peak Carbon Emissions in China

结合中国30个省区的2002至2017年时间序列碳排放数据分析，在2017年前有15个省区达到碳排放峰值，为探究不同省区实现碳排放达峰的路径差异，本文采用投入产出原理和结构分解分析模型，分别探究能源结构、能源强度、生产结构、部门结构和最终需求五个驱动因素在三个研究时段对碳排放达到峰值省份的不同影响，结合脱钩模型将15个省区分为主动达峰型省区和被动减排型省区。研究发现，主动达峰的省区生产结构和部门结构都较合理，其中较少省区对化石能源依旧有依赖性，一般少部分增碳效应能和减碳效应所抵消；被动减排达峰的大部分省区中，能源强度和部门结构起到了主要的增碳作用，辽宁的能源强度是增碳的主要动因，最终需求起到减碳作用，福建和云南的减碳潜力较强。总体上，建议被动减排的省区挖掘导致碳排放下降的原因，充分发挥各省区自身资源禀赋单独设定各省区的排放目标，主动达峰的省区需要找到适合该地区保持碳排放量下降趋势的路径，避免碳排放反弹，各省区需探索符合自身发展情况的“双碳”目标实现路径，以期为未达峰和未实现主动达峰的省区提供科学有效的政策依据。
Based on the analysis of time series carbon emission data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2002 to 2017, 15 provinces reached the peak of carbon emission before 2017. In order to explore the path differences of carbon emission peak in different, this paper adopts input-output principle and structural decomposition analysis to explore the different influences of five driving factors, namely energy structure, energy intensity, production structure, departmental structure and final demand, on the provinces with carbon emission peak in three research periods, and divides 15 provinces into active provinces by combining decoupling model. It is found that the production structure and sector structure of the provinces that actively reach the peak are reasonable, among which less provinces still depend on fossil energy, and generally a small number of carbon increase effects can be offset by carbon reduction effects; in most provinces where passive emission reduction reaches its peak, energy intensity and sector structure play a major role in increasing carbon. Liaoning’s energy intensity is the main motivation for increasing carbon, and the final demand plays a role in reducing carbon. Fujian and Yunnan have strong carbon reduction potential. Generally speaking, it is suggested that provinces with passive emission reduction should explore the causes leading to the decline of carbon emissions, give full play to their own resource endowments and set their own emission targets. Proactively peaked provinces need to find a path suitable for the region to maintain the downward trend of carbon emissions and avoid the rebound of carbon emissions. Provinces need to explore the path to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality in line with their own development, in order to provide scientific and effective policy basis for provinces that have not reached the peak and have not achieved the active peak.