In the 1920s, the United States of America encountered unusual bank failures that had a ripple effect on other continents, including Africa and Asia. Among the African nations most severely impacted by bank collapses were Zimbabwe, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. An increase in non-performing loans was the primary factor found in each case. In Zimbabwe, this issue arose following its independence in 1980 and has persisted despite multiple interventions by the Central Bank of Zimbabwe to modify lending policies. The overarching study aim is to establish how effective these loan models are in ensuring the sustainable performance of Commercial Banks. To address these concerns, the efficiency of the loan models was examined using a sequential explanatory design using a mixed-method approach. A standardized questionnaire with a 5-point Likert scale was employed for the quantitative phase of data gathering. Using a stratified sampling technique, data were gathered from 406 participants employed by 14 Commercial Banking Institutions in Zimbabwe. Using AMOS v. 24.0 and SPSS version 24.0, this collected data was examined to produce descriptive and inferential statistics. For a more thorough comprehension and explanation of the survey results, a structured interview was utilised in the qualitative phase of the research approach with both current and former chief risk officers. Structural Equation Modelling provided estimates of the strength of all hypothesised relationships, where necessary, whilst Novel was used to analyse qualitative data. The Credit Score model has been embraced by many banks, according to the statistics, while the Z-score model has been employed the least. The results revealed that a loan model’s characteristics can, in certain cases, affect the model’s efficacy throughout the loan cycle. There is a negative correlation between various loan models and theories of credit risk. In addition, non-performing loans result from parameters in the loan model being inadequate; these parameters are typified by old models, unfavourable markets, insufficient cash flows, and improper use of a loan model as the bankers perceived the problem. The findings have implications for commercial banks, one of which is that loan models should be reviewed frequently to manage credit risks resulting from the present business environment.
References
[1]
Mileris, R. (2012) The Effects of Macroeconomic Conditions on Loan Portfolio Credit Risk and Banking System Interest Income. Ekonomika, 91, 85-100
[2]
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (2018) Monetary Policy Statement. In Terms of the RBZ Act Chapter 22: 15. Section 46.
[3]
Bolton, P., Cecchetti, S., Danthine, J.P. and Vives, X. (2019) Sound at Last? Assessing a Decade of Financial Regulation. The Future of Banking. CEPR Press.
[4]
Olalekan, L.I., Olumide, M.L. and Irom, I.M. (2018) Financial Risk Management and the Profitability: An Empirical Evidence from Commercial Banks in Nigeria. Journal of Management Sciences, 16, 117-137.
[5]
Banda, G. (2022) Evolution of Zimbabwe’s Maize Innovation Ecosystems: Building an Institutional Innovation Infrastructure That Supports Food Security. Africa Development, 47, 167-195. https://doi.org/10.57054/ad.v47i3.2679
[6]
Kamau, A., Nkaabu, C. and Cherono, V. (2023) Innovation Orientation and Firm Performance: The Role of Organizational Commitment among Commercial Banks in Meru County, Kenya. Human Resource and Leadership, 3, 29-47. https://edinburgjournals.org/journals/index.php/journal-of-human-resource/article/view/170
[7]
Sethi, J. and Bhatia, N. (2023) Elements of Banking and Insurance. 3rd Edition, PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.
[8]
Alsharari, N.M. (2023) The Interplay of Strategic Management Accounting, Business Strategy and Organizational Change: As Influenced by a Configurational Theory. Journal of Accounting & Organizational Change, 20, 153-176. https://doi.org/10.1108/jaoc-09-2021-0130
[9]
Bhattacharya, S. and Thakor, A.V. (1993) Contemporary Banking Theory. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 3, 2-50. https://doi.org/10.1006/jfin.1993.1001
[10]
Bod'a, M. and Zimková, E. (2021) Overcoming the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio by a Financial Intermediation Measure—A Perspective Instrument of Financial Stability Policy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43, 1051-1069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.03.012
[11]
Scholtens, B. and van Wensveen, D. (2000) A Critique on the Theory of Financial Intermediation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24, 1243-1251. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4266(99)00085-0
[12]
Allen, F. and Santomero, A.M. (1997) The Theory of Financial Interme-diation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21, 1461-1485. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4266(97)00032-0
[13]
Brei, M., Borio, C. and Gambacorta, L. (2020) Bank Intermediation Activity in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment. Economic Notes, 49, e12164. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12164
[14]
Abdus, F. (2004) Bahrain’s Commercial Banks Performance; Credit and Financial Performance. Vikas Publishing House.
[15]
Gregoriou, G.N. and Hoppe, C. (2009) The Handbook of Credit Portfolio Man-agement. McGraw-Hill.
[16]
Geek, W. (2014) What Is Credit Portfolio Management?
[17]
Madeira, C. (2018) Explaining the Cyclical Volatility of Consumer Debt Risk Using a Heterogeneous Agents Model: The Case of Chile. Journal of Financial Stability, 39, 209-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.03.005
[18]
Poitras, G. (2015) Commodity Risk Management. Theory and Ap-plication. 2nd Edition, Routledge.
[19]
Els, G., Toit, D. E., Erasmus, P., Kotze, L., Ngwenya, S., Thomas, K. and Viviers, S. (2010) Corporate Finance. A South African Perspective. 2nd Edition, Oxford University Press.
[20]
Alzeaideen, K. (2019) Credit Risk Management and Business Intelligence Approach of the Banking Sector in Jordan. Cogent Business & Management, 6, Article 1675455. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2019.1675455
[21]
Szylar, C. (2014) Handbook of Market Risk. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
[22]
Garp, J.P. (2007) Financial Risk Manager Handbook. 4th Edition, John Wiley and Son, Inc.
[23]
Bolder, D.J. (2018) Credit Risk Modelling. Theoretical Foundations, Diagnostic Tools Practical Examples, and Numerical Recipes in Python. Springer.
[24]
Firer, C., Ross, S.A., Westerfield, E.W. and Jordan, B.D. (2012) The Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. 5th Edition, McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
[25]
Marx, J., De Swardt, C., Pretorius, M. and Rosslyn-Smith, W. (2017) Financial Management in Southern Africa. 5th Edition, Pearson.
[26]
Saleh, M.M.A., Alkasasbeh, L.A.M. and Bader, A.A. (2017) The Role of Financial Analysis Tools in Granting Loans. Field Study on Banks Operating within Aqaba Special Economic Zone). Interna-tional Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 7, 75-85. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarafms/v7-i1/2541
[27]
Megginson, W., Smart, S.B. and Lucey, B.M. (2008) Introduction to Corporate Finance. 2nd Edition, Patrick Bond.
[28]
Wood, F. and Sangster, A. (2005) Business Accounting 1. 10th Edition, Prentice Hall.
[29]
Rose, P.S. and Hudgins, S.C. (2010) Bank Management and Financial Services. 8th Edition, McGraw Hill.
[30]
Saunders, M., Lewis, P. and Thornhill, A. (2012) Research Methods for Business Students. 6th Edition, Pear-son.
[31]
Walliman, N. (2021). Research Methods. 3rd Edition, Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003141693
[32]
Bell, E., Bryman, A. and Harley, B. (2018) Business Research Methods. Oxford University Press.
[33]
Creswell, J.W. and Creswell, J.D. (2018) Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches. 5th Edition, Sage Publica-tions.
[34]
Fellows, R.F. and Liu, A.M. (2021) Research Methods for Construction. John Wiley & Sons.
[35]
Teddlie, C. and Tashakkori, A. (2009) Foundations of Mixed Research Methods: Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches in the Social and Behavioural Sciences. 3rd Edition, SAGE Publications.
[36]
Sreejesh, S. (2014) Business Research Methods: An Applied Orientation. Springer International Publishing.
[37]
McNabb, D.E. (2017) Research Methods in Public Administration and Non-profit Management. 4th Edition, Routledge.
[38]
Sekaran, U. and Bougie, R. (2009) Research Methods for Business: A Skills Building Approach. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
[39]
Abdou, H.A. and Pointon, J. (2011) Credit Scoring, Statistical Techniques and Evaluation Criteria: A Review of the Literature. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 18, 59-88. https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.325
[40]
Field, A. (2022) An Adventure in Statistics: The Reality Enigma. Sage.
[41]
Marlow, C.R. (2023) Research Methods for Generalist Social Work. Waveland Press.
[42]
Raju, T. and Prabhu, R. (2019) Business Research Methods. MJP Publisher.
[43]
Sabah, N.M. (2022) The Impact of Social Media-Based Collaborative Learning Environments on Students’ Use Outcomes in Higher Education. International Journal of Human-Computer Interaction, 39, 667-689. https://doi.org/10.1080/10447318.2022.2046921
Kline, R.B. (2023) Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling. Guilford Publica-tions.
[46]
Sheard, J. (2018) Quantitative Data Analysis. In: Williamson, K. and Johanson, G., Eds., Research Methods, Chandos Publishing, 429-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-102220-7.00018-2
[47]
Rosak-Szyrocka, J. and Tiwari, S. (2023) Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to Test Sustainable Development in University 4.0 in the Ultra-Smart Society Era. Sustain-ability, 15, Article 16167. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152316167
[48]
Brase, C.H. and Brase, C.P. (2021) Understanding Basic Statistics. MA Cengage Learning.
[49]
Hair, J., Hult, G.T.M., Ringle, C.M. and Sarstedt, M. (2014) A Primer on Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM). 2nd Edition, SAGE.
[50]
Ugoani, J.N.N. (2015) Poor Bank Liquidity Risk Management and Bank Failures: Nigerian Perspective. Proceedings in Finance and Risk Series, 14, 659-678.
[51]
Samreen, A., Zaidi, F.B. and Sarwar, A. (2013) Design and Development of Credit Scoring Model for the Commercial Banks in Pakistan: Forecasting Creditworthiness of Corporate Borrowers. International Journal of Business and Commerce, 2, 1-26.
[52]
Desai, V.S., Crook, J.N. and Overstreet, G.A. (1996) A Comparison of Neural Networks and Linear Scoring Models in the Credit Union Environment. European Journal of Operational Research, 95, 24-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(95)00246-4