基于事故因子分析的道路安全区域差异化管理对策研究
Research on Regional Differentiated Management Strategy of Road Safety Based on Accident Factor Analysis

为探究影响南北方道路交通事故人员伤亡的关键致因因素，制定道路安全区域差异化管理对策。基于2020~2022年间广西壮族自治区和山东省交通事故数据，从人–车–路–环境四方面因素选取75个潜在自变量，利用多项logistics回归模型分析识别得到影响南北方交通事故的显著性致因因素。研究结果表明：南北方交通事故的共性致因因素为：驾驶人是否超速、驾驶人是否采取安全防护、车辆服役时间、事故路段车流量、限速标志、路侧几何设计。北方交通事故的差异性致因因素为：驾驶人是否饮酒、道路表面状况、天气；南方交通事故的主要致因因素为：驾驶人视野是否受限、驾驶人是否按照车道行驶、有无非机动车道、道路等级、是否降水。研究成果可为南北方地区制定道路安全差异化管理方案提供依据与参考，对于减小道路交通事故人员伤亡与经济损失具有现实意义。
In order to explore the key factors affecting the casualties of road traffic accidents in the north and the south, formulate regional differentiated management countermeasures for road safety. Based on the traffic accident data of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Shandong Province from 2020 to 2022, 75 potential independent variables were selected from four aspects of human-vehicle-road-environment factors, and the significant cause factors affecting traffic accidents in the south and north were analyzed and identified by multiple logistics regression models. The results show that the common causes of traffic accidents in the north and south are: whether the driver is speeding, whether the driver takes safety protection, the service time of the vehicle, the traffic flow in the accident section, the speed limit sign, and the roadside geometric design. The causes of different traffic accidents in north China are: whether the driver drinks alcohol, road surface conditions, weather; The main causes of traffic accidents in the south are: whether the driver’s vision is limited, whether the driver is driving according to the lane, whether there is non-motorized lane, road grade, and whether there is precipitation. The research results can provide a basis and reference for the formulation of differentiated road safety management schemes in the northern and southern regions, and have practical significance for reducing the casualties and economic losses caused by road traffic accidents.