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引洮工程受水区径流演变规律分析
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Abstract:
根据引洮工程受水区四个水文站的1956~2022年实测径流数据，运用趋势检验、小波分析、贝叶斯变点分析模型等方法分析径流年际变化，采用不均匀系数、集中度和集中期等表征径流年内分配情况并研究其变化趋势，结果表明：受水区年径流整体呈显著减小趋势，在年代际差异上存在较强跳跃性，最大概率突变年在1990年前后，此后减小趋势愈发显著；年径流大尺度主周期振幅在2005年以后显著减小，小尺度主周期振荡愈发剧烈，呈现更复杂的变化态势，预计未来2~3年内持续减小；汛期径流显著减小，径流年内分配不均匀程度和集中程度降低。整体来看，受水区径流显著减小，年内分配发生变化，周期振荡愈发复杂，水资源安全保障不确定性加大，亟需优化调控引洮工程供水与水资源配置。
Based on observed runoff data from four hydrological stations in the receiving water area of the Yintao project from 1956 to 2022, a comprehensive analysis of annual runoff inter-annual variability was con-ducted using methods such as trend analysis, wavelet analysis, and Bayesian change-point models. Addi-tionally, characteristics of intra-annual runoff distribution, including the uneven coefficient, concentration degree, and concentration period, were employed to analyze their temporal changes. The results are as follows: The annual runoff in the receiving water area exhibits a significant decreasing trend, with pro-nounced decadal variability in runoff changes. The highest probability of a change-point occurring was around 1990, after which the declining trend became more prominent. On a larger scale, the amplitude of the main periodic oscillations in annual runoff showed a significant reduction after 2005, while small-er-scale oscillations became more intense. Consequently, the annual runoff displayed a more intricate changing pattern, with a projected continuation of reduction in the next 2~3 years. There is a significant decrease in flood season runoff in the receiving area, accompanied by a decrease in the unevenness and concentration degree of intra-annual distribution. Overall, the runoff in the water receiving area signifi-cantly reduced, the intra-annual distribution changes, the cycle oscillation is more complex, the uncer-tainty of water resources security increases, there’s an urgent need to optimize the regulation of the water supply of Yintao project and water resources allocation.
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