中国货物贸易对保险服务贸易逆差的影响
The Impact of China’s Goods Trade on Insurance Service Trade Deficit

中国的货物贸易总量和服务贸易总量都处于扩张状态，但中国的保险服务作为服务贸易的重要组成部分，其形势却不太乐观。分析其结构可知，保险服务贸易表现为长期逆差，但中国的货物贸易表现为长期顺差，两者都呈扩大趋势。由于货物贸易会对保险服务产生引致需求，故本文分析了中国货物贸易对保险服务贸易逆差的作用，利用2000~2018年的数据，进行实证分析，得出中国货物贸易总额增加会带动保险服务贸易逆差的扩大并主要从货物贸易商的投保选择和贸易术语的选择方面解释了该影响机制。
Chinese total trade in goods and services is expanding, but as an important part of service trade, the situation of Chinese insurance service is not very optimistic. Based on the analysis of its structure, it can be seen that the trade in insurance services shows a long-term deficit, but the trade in goods in China shows a long-term surplus, both of which show an expanding trend. Due to the demand for insurance services caused by trade in goods, this paper analyzes the effect of China’s goods trade on the insurance service trade deficit. Using the data from 2000 to 2018 for empirical analysis, it is concluded that the increase of China’s total trade in goods will drive the trade in insurance services. And this paper mainly explains the influence mechanism from the choice of insurance and trade terms of the goods traders.