生育补贴政策与生育率变化：理论推演与数值模拟
Childbirth Subsidy Policy and Fertility Rate Changes: Theoretical Deduction and Numerical Simulation

人口老龄化是社会发展过程中不可忽视的问题，也是我国的基本国情，近年来，政府部门和学术界越来越关注老龄化进程加速、生育率低迷引起的问题。本文通过构建一个内生化生育率的三期OLG模型，从理论模型和数值模拟两方面出发，分析生育补贴政策对生育率和家庭照料的影响。研究发现：第一，生育补贴政策对生育率和人力资本水平具有显著的促进作用，但对社会总劳动供给的影响不确定；第二，生育补贴政策可以缓解家庭老年赡养压力，但同时也会加重家庭的少年抚养压力；第三，人口老龄化、老年义务赡养压力的增加会抑制人力资本的发展。据此，我国应该坚持放松性生育政策不动摇，加快构建生育支持政策体系，制定更加清晰明确的生育补贴政策，同时注重家庭养老问题，实施科教兴国战略，以积极应对人口老龄化带来的负面冲击。
The aging population is an issue that cannot be ignored in the process of social development, and it is also the basic national condition of China. In recent years, government departments and academic circles have paid more and more attention to the problems caused by the accelerated aging process and low fertility rate. This article builds a three-period OLG model of endogenized fertility and analyzes the impact of fertility subsidy policies on fertility and family care from both theoretical models and numerical simulations. The study found that: First, the maternity subsidy policy has a significant promoting effect on the fertility rate and human capital level, but its impact on the total social labor supply is uncertain; Second, the maternity subsidy policy can alleviate the pressure of elderly support for families, but at the same time, it will also increase the pressure of juvenile support for families; Thirdly, the aging of the population and the increase in the pressure of obligatory support for the elderly will inhibit the development of human capital. Accordingly, China should persist in relaxing its fertility policy, accelerate the construction of a fertility support policy system, formulate a clearer fertility subsidy policy, pay attention to family care issues, and implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education to actively respond to the negative consequences of population aging impact.