基于MOP-PLUS模型的成都市多情景景观生态风险预测
Multi-Scenario Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Chengdu Based on MOP-PLUS Model

为探究成都市多情景下的土地利用变化以及景观生态风险变化，基于成都市2010、2020年土地利用数据，利用MOP-PLUS模型、Fragstats软件等模拟预测多情景下土地利用变化对景观生态风险的变化，并结合GeoDa软件分析其景观生态风险空间自相关。结果表明：1) 自然情景下，成都市建设用地会迅速扩张，侵占耕地等资源；低碳情景下，建设用地扩张情况有所控制。2) 2020年成都市景观生态风险主要以较低和中等风险为主，高风险区主要分布在成都西南地区。在2030年低碳情景下，高风险区大量减少。3) 2020~2030年成都市景观生态风险空间分布呈正相关，具有显著的集聚效应。在2030年低碳情景下，空间集聚效应有所减弱。
In order to explore the land use change and landscape ecological risk change under multiple sce-narios in Chengdu, based on the land use data of Chengdu in 2010 and 2020, the MOP-PLUS model and Fragstats were used to simulate and predict the change of land use change on landscape eco-logical risk under multiple scenarios, combined with GeoDa analysis of spatial autocorrelation of urban landscape ecological risk in Chengdu. The results show: 1) In natural scenarios, the con-struction land in Chengdu will expand rapidly and occupy cultivated land resources; in low-carbon scenarios, the expansion of construction land is controlled. 2) In 2020, the landscape eco-logical risks in Chengdu are mainly low and medium risks. High-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southwestern region of Chengdu. Under the low-carbon scene in 2030, a large number of high-risk areas decreased. 3) From 2020 to 2030, the distribution of landscape ecological risk space in Chengdu is positively correlated and has a significant agglomeration effect. In the low-carbon scene in 2030, the space agglomeration effect weakened.