|
|
气态污染物浓度对流感暴发风险的影响
|
Abstract:
为探究深圳市气态污染物浓度对流感暴发疫情的潜在影响，为流感的防控提供参考依据。本研究收集了2013年5月1日至2015年12月31日的深圳市流感暴发疫情逐日监测数据，以及该时间段内气象要素与大气污染物浓度数据，区分两种流感病毒亚型(甲流、乙流)，通过建立分布–滞后模型(Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model, DLNM)研究流感暴发风险与三种气态污染物(NO2、SO2和O3)浓度的关联性。结果表明，冷季(11月4日至次年4月20日)两种病毒亚型的暴发高峰基本与NO2、SO2的浓度高峰相对应；而暖季(4月19日至11月3日)大气中高浓度的O3常伴随着流感的暴发。冷季高浓度的NO2和SO2对甲流疫情存在显著的短期滞后影响。暴发当天68.51 μg/m3 (P95)的NO2和21.77 μg/m3 (P95)的SO2相关联的相对危险度(Relative Risk, RR)分别为3.04 (95% CI: 2.07~4.48)和1.76 (95% CI: 1.08~2.88)。然而，NO2对乙流疫情的影响不显著，SO2在滞后3~5 d时对乙流有微弱影响，例如，滞后4 d时21.77 μg/m3 (P95) SO2相关联的RR = 1.45 (95% CI: 1.12~1.80)。在暖季，高浓度的O3对流感暴发存在显著影响。对甲流而言，在滞后3 d时效应最为显著，162.12 μg/m3 (P95) O3的RR = 2.42 (95% CI: 1.12~5.42)；对乙流而言，暴发当日影响最强烈，162.12 μg/m3 O3的RR = 3.50 (95% CI: 1.54~7.96)。此外，冷季O3浓度本身较低，且对流感的影响不甚显著。综上，NO2、SO2在冷季对甲流疫情的影响更为显著，而高浓度O3在暖季也会增加流感风险。
To explore the potential impact of gaseous pollutant concentration on influenza outbreak epidemics in Shenzhen, and provide a scientific reference for influenza prevention and control, in this study, we collect the daily monitoring data of influenza outbreak in Shenzhen from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015, as well as local meteorological factors and atmospheric pollutant concentration during the same period. We differentiated two influenza virus subtypes, i.e., influenza A and influenza B, to research the risk of influenza outbreak and lag effects of three gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, and O3), through establishing the Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). The results show that, the peaks of two subtypes’ outbreak in the cool season (November 4 to April 20 of the following year) basically corresponded to the high peaks of NO2 and SO2, while high concentration of O3 in the warm season (April 19 to November 3) was accompanied by influenza epidemic. There was a significant short-term lag effect of NO2 and SO2 during the cold season on the influenza A outbreak. The Relative Risk (RR) associated with 68.51 μg/m3 (P95) of NO2 and 21.77 μg/m3 (P95) of SO2 on the current day was 3.04 (95% CI: 2.07~4.48) and 1.76 (95% CI: 1.08~2.88), respectively. However, NO2 did not show a significant influence on influenza B, while SO2 had a weak effect at a lag of 3~5 d. For example, the
| [1] | 杨娟, 赖圣杰, 余宏杰. 感染性疾病流行现状、防控挑战与应对[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2017, 21(7): 647-649, 674.
https://doi.org/10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.07.001 |
| [2] | Feng, L., Feng, S., Chen, T., Yang, J., Lau, Y.C., Peng, Z., Li, L., et al. (2020) Burden of Influenza-Associated Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Consultations in China, 2006-2015: A Population-Based Study. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 14, 162-172. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12711 |
| [3] | Javanian, M., Barary, M., Ghebrehewet, S., Koppolu, V., Vasigala, V. and Ebrahimpour, S. (2021) A Brief Review of Influenza Virus Infection. Journal of Medical Virology, 93, 4638-4646. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26990 |
| [4] | 逯建华, 程小雯, 房师松, 等. 深圳市2005-2008年流感样病例暴发疫情特征分析[J]. 中国热带医学, 2009, 9(11): 2102-2103. |
| [5] | 陆剑云, 练桂雄, 陈文华, 陈艺韵, 李魁彪, 等. 2009年广州市417起流感样病例暴发疫情分析[J]. 华南预防医学, 2011, 37(1): 29-30. |
| [6] | Hong, K., Sohn, S. and Chun, B.C. (2019) Estimating Influenza-Associated Mortality in Korea: The 2009-2016 Seasons. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, 52, 308-315. https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.19.156 |
| [7] | Dai, Q., Ma, W., Huang, H., Xu, K., Qi, X., Yu, H., Deng, F., Bao, C. and Huo, X. (2018) The Effect of Ambient Temperature on the Activity of Influenza and Influenza like Illness in Jiangsu Province, China. Science of the Total Environment, 645, 684-691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.065 |
| [8] | 张惺惺, 冯录召, 赖圣杰, 马礼兵, 张婷, 杨津, 王晴, 杨维中. 流感疫情早期预警模型的研究进展[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2022, 56(11): 1576-1583. |
| [9] | 聂赛赛, 王帅, 崔建升, 刘大喜, 陈静, 田亮, 贺博文, 沈梦宇. 石家庄市大气污染物的季节性时空特征及潜在源区[J]. 环境科学, 2021, 42(11): 5131-5142. |
| [10] | Wang, D., Lei, H., Wang, D., Shu, Y. and Xiao, S. (2023) Association between Temperature and Influenza Activity across Different Regions of China during 2010-2017. Viruses, 15, Article No. 594. https://doi.org/10.3390/v15030594 |
| [11] | 马盼, 王馨梓, 张莉, 等. 深圳流感发病的气象诱因及预测建模研究[J]. 气象学报, 2022, 80(3): 421-432. |
| [12] | 郭貔, 李克. 香港1997-2008年甲型流感季节性波动与气候因素的相关性分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2011(10): 1005-1008. |
| [13] | Li, Y.P. (2018) Impact of Weather Factors on Influenza Hospitalization across Different Age Groups in Subtropical Hong Kong. International Journal of Biometeorology, 62, 1615-1624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1561-z |
| [14] | Wang, X.L., Yang, L., He, D.H., Chiu, A.P., Chan, K.H., Chan, K.P., Zhou, M., Wong, C.M., Guo, Q. and Hu, W. (2017) Different Responses of Influenza Epidemic to Weather Factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia. International Journal of Biometeorology, 61, 1043-1053. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1284-y |
| [15] | Abolhasani, R., Araghi, F., Tabary, M., Aryannejad, A., Mashinchi, B. and Robati, R.M. (2021) The Impact of Air Pollution on Skin and Related Disorders: A Comprehensive Review. Dermatologic Therapy, 34, e14840.
https://doi.org/10.1111/dth.14840 |
| [16] | Guarnieri, M. and Balmes, J.R. (2014) Outdoor Air Pollution and Asthma. The Lancet, 383, 1581-1592.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60617-6 |
| [17] | Münzel, T., Gori, T., Al-Kindi, S., Deanfield, J., Le-lieveld, J., Daiber, A. and Rajagopalan, S. (2018) Effects of Gaseous and Solid Constituents of Air Pollution on Endothelial Function. European Heart Journal, 39, 3543-3550.
https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehy481 |
| [18] | Ma, P., Zhou, N., Wang, X., Zhang, Y., Tang, X., Yang, Y., Ma, X. and Wang, S. (2023) Stronger Susceptibilities to Air Pollutants of Influenza A than B Were Identified in Sub-tropical Shenzhen, China. Environmental Research, 219, Article ID: 115100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.115100 |
| [19] | Liang, Z.F., Chen, W.B., Zheng, J. and Lu, T.J. (2019) Simulation of the Distribution of Main Atmospheric Pollutants and the Influence of Land Use on Them in Central Urban Area of Nanchang City, China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 30, 1005-1014. |
| [20] | Zhang, Y., Wang, S., Feng, Z. and Song, Y. (2022) Influenza Incidence and Air Pollution: Findings from a Four-Year Surveillance Study of Prefecture-Level Cities in China. Frontiers in Public Health, 10, Article ID: 1071229.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1071229 |
| [21] | Song, Y., Zhang, Y., Wang, T., Qian, S. and Wang, S. (2021) Spatio-Temporal Differentiation in the Incidence of Influenza and Its Relationship with Air Pollution in China from 2004 to 2017. Chinese Geographical Science, 31, 815-828.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-021-1228-2 |
| [22] | Yang, J., Yang, Z., Qi, L., Li, M., Liu, D., Liu, X., Tong, S., Sun, Q., Feng, L., Ou, C.Q. and Liu, Q. (2023) Influence of Air Pollution on Influenza-Like Illness in China: A Nationwide Time-Series Analysis. EBioMedicine, 87, Article ID: 104421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104421 |
| [23] | 赵秀玲, 李伟, 王伟民, 韩立建, 周伟奇. 我国典型城市空气质量演变及其调控——以深圳市2000-2017年为例[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(17): 5894-5903. |
| [24] | 深圳市气象局. 深圳市气候概况及四季特征[EB/OL]. http://weather.sz.gov.cn, 2022-03-31. |
| [25] | Zhang, T.P., Wang, L.J., Wang, S., Wang, P., Zhou, X.H., Wang, L., Yang, C.M. and Li, X.M. (2022) Exposure to Ambient Gaseous Pollutant and Daily Hospitalizations for Sj？gren’s Syndrome in Hefei: A Time-Series Study. Frontiers in Immunology, 13, Article ID: 1028893. https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2022.1028893 |
| [26] | 康敏, 谭小华, 杨宇威, 武婕, 郑慧贞, 宋铁. 广东省2017-2018年冬季流感流行特征研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2018, 39(8): 1071-1076. |
| [27] | 谢祖欣, 冯宏芳, 林文, 张福旺, 李丹, 陈彬彬, 蒋永成. 气象条件对福州市夏季臭氧(O3)浓度的影响研究[J]. 生态环境学报, 2020, 29(11): 2251-2261. |
| [28] | 景双林. 数据驱动的几类多因素影响流感建模与分析[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 兰州: 兰州理工大学, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.27206/d.cnki.ggsgu.2020.000470 |
| [29] | Li, H., Ge, M. and Wang, C. (2023) Spatio-Temporal Evolution Patterns of Influenza Incidence and Its Nonlinear Spatial Correlation with Environmental Pollutants in China. BMC Public Health, 23, Article No. 1685.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16646-z |
| [30] | Li, P., Yu, T.Z., Ge, K.F., Guo, R.R., Lin, Y.H., Zhang, J. and Wang, W.J. (2021) Impact of Air Pollutants on Influenza Incidence in Jining City from 2009 to 2017 and Its Early Warning. Journal of Jining Medical University, 44, 153-157. |
| [31] | 廖青, 胡雪姣, 薛琦, 王蕾, 刘建华, 王思嘉, 宫雅琪, 聂绍发. 宜昌市大气污染物对流感样病例的短期效应[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(10): 879-884, 891. https://doi.org/10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18182 |
