贵阳龙洞堡机场强对流天气潜势预报技术研究
Research on the Prediction Technology of Severe Convective Weather Potential at Guiyang Longdongbao Airport

本文利用常规观测资料、贵阳机场气候志资料、自动观测站及C波段多普勒双偏振雷达、微波辐射计等观测资料，分析2008年~2021年贵阳机场强对流天气统计学特征，表明贵阳机场强对流天气年、月、日变化特征显著。然后通过水汽、不稳定能量、垂直风切变及抬升条件4个方面对贵阳机场强对流发生的具体阈值进行统计总结。最后根据热力学、动力学结构特征，将贵阳机场强对流天气的形势背景分成低层暖平流强迫型、高空冷平流强迫型、斜压锋生型、准正压型、高架雷暴类。
This article analyzes the statistical characteristics of severe convective weather at Guiyang Airport from 2008 to 2021 using conventional observation data, climate records at Guiyang Airport, automatic observation stations, C-band Doppler dual polarization radar, wind profile radar, microwave radiometer, and other observation data. It shows that the annual, monthly, and daily variation characteristics of severe convective weather at Guiyang Airport are significant. Then, the specific thresholds for the occurrence of severe convection at Guiyang Airport are statistically summarized through four aspects: water vapor, unstable energy, vertical wind shear, and uplift conditions. Finally, based on the thermodynamic and dynamic structural characteristics, the situation background of severe convective weather at Guiyang Airport is divided into low-level warm advection forcing type, high-altitude cold advection forcing type, baroclinic frontogenesis type, quasi barotropic type, and elevated thunderstorm type.