基于有序Logit模型的住房因素对生育意愿的影响研究——以CGSS2021数据为例
Research on the Influence of Housing Factors on Fertility Intentions Based on Ordered Logit Model—Using CGSS2021 Data as an Example

随着人们生育观念的转变，我国人口生育率自2017年起已连续六年呈现下降趋势，意味着低生育已成为我国面临的现实问题。本文通过构建有序Logit模型，从住房建筑面积、拥有房产数量和房屋产权情况三个方面研究住房因素对不同收入群体生育意愿的影响，并通过改变计量模型、分样本回归和更换样本共三个角度的稳健性检验，证实回归模型结果可靠；研究得出：住房因素对低/中等收入群体生育意愿的影响显著；建议有关部门给予优惠政策。
With the change of people’s concept of fertility, China’s population fertility rate has shown a downward trend for six consecutive years since 2017, which means that low fertility has become a real problem facing China. This paper investigates the impact of housing factors on the fertility intention of different income groups by constructing a multivariate ordinal logistic regression model in terms of housing floor area, the number of properties owned and home ownership status, and confirms that the results of the regression model are reliable through the robustness checks of changing the econometric model, sub-sample regression and replacing the sample in total from three perspectives. The study concludes that the housing factor has a significant impact on the fertility intentions of the low and middle income groups; and suggests that the relevant departments should give preferential policies.