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日本人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系转变的分析与启示
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Abstract:
本文检索世界银行数据库，以1961~2018年日本婴儿死亡率、人均GDP及其他可能的相关影响因素为基础，先进行数据Z-scores标准化，再以相关分析最小样本量为依据进行阶段性分组，通过相关分析寻找人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的转折，并以婴儿死亡率为因变量、人均GDP和相关影响因素为自变量，构建岭回归模型进行验证。研究发现日本在上世纪九十年代中后期出现了人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系从有积极影响向无积极影响的转变。认识二者关系所处的位置、判断关系变化的转折点对适时调整防控策略有一定的意义，不可放大也不能忽视人均GDP的作用。
This article searches the World Bank database, based on Japan’s infant mortality rate, per capita GDP, and other possible influencing factors from 1961 to 2018. The data is first standardized by Z-scores, and then phased grouping is conducted based on the minimum sample size of correlation analysis. Through correlation analysis, the turning point of the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate is found, with infant mortality rate as the dependent variable, per capita GDP, and related influencing factors as the independent variable, to construct a ridge regression model for validation. Research has found that Japan experienced a shift in the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate from having a positive impact to not having a positive impact in the mid to late 1990s. Understanding the position of the relationship between the two and determining the turning point of changes in the relationship are of certain significance for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies, and the role of per capita GDP cannot be magnified or ignored.
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