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应用拟合对早期新冠数据进行分析
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Abstract:
传染病(如之前的COVID-19大流行病)对全球公共卫生构成重大威胁，死亡率是衡量潜在治疗和干预措施有效性的关键指标。由于发现时间有限，对新出现的流行病的研究也有限，所以使用现有数据对死亡率和康复率进行分析，对研究流行病的早期发病规律、发展趋势具有重要现实意义。我们运用了多项式拟合函数对三个地区(中国，湖北，武汉)进行了函数拟合，并且给出了相关的函数曲线。通过对拟合结果和现实情况进行对比分析得出结论，在中国大陆COVID-19大流行的早期阶段，疾病严重程度与医疗资源可用性有较强相关性。
Infectious diseases (such as the previous COVID-19 pandemic) pose a major threat to global public health. Mortality is a key indicator to measure the effectiveness of latent treatments and interven-tions. Due to the limited time of discovery and the limited research on emerging epidemics, the use of existing data to analyze mortality and recovery rates is of great practical significance for discov-ering the early onset pattern and development trend of epidemics. We used the polynomial match function to perform function matching in three regions (China, Hubei, Wuhan), and gave the rele-vant function curves. By comparing the match results and the actual situation, it is concluded that in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chinese mainland, there is a certain correlation be-tween disease severity and the availability of medical resources.
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