In this study, annual,
quarterly, and monthly mean precipitation data in Saudi Arabia were correlated
with sunspot number (SSN) and galactic cosmic ray (CR) flux over 35 years
(1985-2019). The results show that the strength, magnitude, proportion and
statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation and the two
variables varied by season and month. We find that mean annual precipitation in
Saudi Arabia, from May to November, and summer and autumn are correlated with
cosmic rays and inversely correlated with SSN. Correlations of varying
intensities and scales were found during the remaining months and during winter
and spring. The relationships between the rainfall and SSN and CR for each
solar cycle were investigated and showed that for all three cycles, the annual rainfall over Saudi
Arabia has a positive correlation with CR.Different results were
obtained when the seasonal rainfall data correlated with the SSNs and CRs
during each cycle. The results obtained, in terms of their strength and
magnitude, are affected by terrestrial and extra-terrestrial factors. These
factors have been briefly presented and discussed.These findings represent a step towards understanding the possible role
of solar activity in climate change for future meteorological phenomenon
forecasting, even if the physical mechanism is still poorly quantified.
References
[1]
Almazroui, M., Islam, M.N., Jones, P.D., Athar, H. And Rahman, M.A. (2012) Recent Climate Change in the Arabian Peninsula: Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Climatology of Saudi Arabia for 1979-2009. Atmospheric Research, 111, 29-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.02.013
[2]
Olayide, O.E., Tetteh, I.K. and Popoola, L. (2016) Differential Impacts of Rainfall and Irrigation on Agricultural Production in Nigeria: Any Lessons for Climate-Smart Agriculture? Agricultural Water Management, 178, 30-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.08.034
[3]
Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., Hegerl, G.C., et al. (2007) Detection of Human Influence on Twentieth-Century Precipitation Trends. Nature, 448, 461-465. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06025
[4]
Adnan, S. and Khan, A.H. (2009) Effective Rainfall for Irrigated Agriculture Plains of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 6, 61-72.
[5]
Aizen, E.M., Aizen, V.B., Melack, J.M., Nakamura, T. and Ohta, T. (2001) Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns at Mid-Latitudes of Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 535-556. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.626
[6]
Hasanean, H. and Almazroui, M. (2015) Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, a Review. Climate, 3, 578-626. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3030578
[7]
de Vries, A.J., Feldstein, S.B., Riemer, M., et al. (2016) Dynamics of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in Saudi Arabia in Autumn, Winter and Spring. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 1862-1880. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2781
[8]
Murray, S.J. (2014) Trends in 20th Century Global Rainfall Interception as Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Implications for Global Water Resources. Ecohydrology, 7, 102-114. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1325
[9]
Farnsworth, A., White, E., Williams, C.J., Black, E. and Kniveton, D.R. (2011) Understanding the Large Scale Driving Mechanisms of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa. In: Williams, C. and Kniveton, D., Eds., African Climate and Climate Change. Advances in Global Change Research, Vol. 43, Springer, Dordrecht, 101-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_5
[10]
Zhang, Q., Xu, C.-Y., Tao, H., Jiang, T. and Chen, Y.-D. (2010) Climate Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Arid Regions: A Case Study of the Tarim River Basin, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 24, 349-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-009-0324-0
[11]
Dai, A., Fung, I.Y. and Del Genio, A.D. (1997) Surface Observed Global Land Precipitation Variations during 1900-88. Journal of Climate, 10, 2943-2962. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2943:SOGLPV>2.0.CO;2
[12]
Dore, M.H.I. (2005) Climate Change and Changes in Global Precipitation Patterns: What Do We Know? Environment International, 31, 1167-1181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2005.03.004
[13]
Emori, S., and Brown, S. J. (2005) Dynamic and Thermodynamic Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation under Changed Climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, Article No. L17706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272
[14]
Ineson, S., Maycock, A.C., Gray, L.J., et al. (2015) Regional Climate Impacts of a Possible Future Grand Solar Minimum. Nature Communications, 6, Article No. 7535. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8535
[15]
Haigh, J.D. (1996) The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.272.5264.981
[16]
Carslaw, K.S., Harrison, R.G. and Kirkby, J. (2002) Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate. Science, 298, 1732-1737. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1076964
[17]
Haigh, J.D., Winning, A.R., Toumi, R. and Harder, J.W. (2010) An Influence of Solar Spectral Variations on Radiative Forcing of Climate. Nature, 467, 696-699. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09426
[18]
Bucha, V. (1991) Solar and Geomagnetic Variability and Changes of Weather and Climate. Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, 53, 1161-1172. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(91)90067-H
[19]
Rind, D., Lean, J., Lerner, J., Lonergan, P., and Leboissitier, A. (2008) Exploring the Stratospheric/Tropospheric Response to Solar Forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, Article No. D24103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010114
[20]
Labitzke, K. and Vanloon, H. (1993) Some Recent Studies of Probable Connections between Solar and Atmospheric Variability. Annales Geophysicae, 11, 1084-1094.
[21]
Maghrabi, A.H. (2019) Multi-Decadal Variations and Periodicities of the Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) and Their Possible Association with Solar Activity: Arabian Peninsula. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185, 22-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.011
[22]
Maghrabi, A. and Kudela, K. (2019) Relationship between Time Series Cosmic Ray Data and Aerosol Optical Properties: 1999-2015. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 190, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.04.014
[23]
Kristjánsson, J.E., Kristiansen, J. and Kaas, E. (2004) Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays, Clouds and Climate—An Update. Advances in Space Research, 34, 407-415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2003.02.040
[24]
Pierce, J. R., and Adams, P. J. (2009) Can Cosmic Rays Affect Cloud Condensation Nuclei by Altering New Particle Formation Rates? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, Article No. L09820. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037946
[25]
Svensmark, H., Bondo, T., and Svensmark, J. (2009) Cosmic Ray Decreases Affect Atmospheric Aerosols and Clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, Article No. L15101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038429
[26]
Marsh, N.D. and Svensmark, H. (2000) Low Cloud Properties Influenced by Cosmic Rays. Physical Review Letters, 85, 5004-5007. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.5004
[27]
Laurenz, L., Lüdecke, H.J. and Lüning, S. (2019) Influence of Solar Activity Changes on European Rainfall. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185, 29-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012
[28]
Czymzik, M., Muscheler, R. and Brauer, A. (2016) Solar Modulation of Flood Frequency in Central Europe during Spring and Summer on Interannual to Multi-Centennial Timescales. Climate of the Past, 12, 799-805. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-799-2016
[29]
Schwander, M., Rohrer, M., Brönnimann, S. and Malik, A. (2017) Influence of Solar Variability on the Occurrence of Central European Weather Types from 1763 to 2009. Climate of the Past, 13, 1199-1212. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1199-2017
[30]
Bhattacharyya, S. and Narasimha, R. (2005) Possible Association between Indian Monsoon Rainfall and Solar Activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, Article No. L05813. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021044
[31]
Zhao, J., Han, Y.-B. and Li, Z.-A. (2004) The Effect of Solar Activity on the Annual Precipitation in the Beijing Area. Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 4, Article No. 189. https://doi.org/10.1088/1009-9271/4/2/189
[32]
Gachari, F., Mulati, D.M. and Mutuku, J.N. (2014) Sunspot Numbers: Implications on Eastern African Rainfall. South African Journal of Science, 110, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2014/20130050
[33]
Ma, L., Han, Y. and Yin, Z. (2007) The Possible Influence of Solar Activity on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Applied Geophysics, 4, 231-237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11770-007-0029-4
[34]
Mohamed, M.A. and El-Mahdy, M.E.S. (2021) Impact of Sunspot Activity on the Rainfall Patterns over Eastern Africa: A Case Study of Sudan and South Sudan. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12, 2104-2124. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.312
[35]
Hiremath, K.M. and Mandi, P.I. (2004) Influence of the Solar Activity on the Indian Monsoon Rainfall. New Astronomy, 9, 651-662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2004.04.001
[36]
Kruskal, W.H. and Wallis, W.A. (1952) Use of Ranks in One-Criterion Variance Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 47, 583-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1952.10483441
[37]
Szypcio, Z. and Dolzyk-Szypcio, K. (2019) Influence of Solar Activity on Total Annual Precipitation. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 221, Article ID: 012156. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/221/1/012156
[38]
Nazari-Sharabian, M. and Karakouzian, M. (2020) Relationship between Sunspot Numbers and Mean Annual Precipitation: Application of Cross-Wavelet Transform—A Case Study. J, 3, 67-78. https://doi.org/10.3390/j3010007
[39]
Dayan, U. and Levy, I. (2005) The Influence of Meteorological Conditions and Atmospheric Circulation Types on PM10 and Visibility in Tel Aviv. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 44, 606-619. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2232.1
[40]
Seinfeld, J.H., Pandis, S.N. and Noone, K. (1998) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change. Physics Today, 51, 88-90. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.882420
[41]
Bowen, E.G. (1956) A Relation between Meteor Showers and the Rainfall of November and December. Tellus, 8, 394-402. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v8i3.9007
[42]
Currie, R.G. and Vines, R.G. (1996) Evidence for Luni—Solar Mn and Solar Cycle Sc Signals in Australian Rainfall Data. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1243-1265. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199611)16:11<1243::AID-JOC85>3.0.CO;2-E
[43]
Cook, E.R., Meko, D.M. and Stockton, C.W. (1997) A New Assessment of Possible Solar and Lunar Forcing of the Bidecadal Drought Rhythm in the Western United States. Journal of Climate, 10, 1343-1356. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1343:ANAOPS>2.0.CO;2
[44]
Kirov, B. and Georgieva, K. (2002) Long-Term Variations and Interrelations of ENSO, NAO and Solar Activity. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 27, 441-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00024-4
[45]
Edgell, H.S. (2006) Arabian Deserts: Nature, Origin and Evolution. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3970-0
[46]
Abdi Vishkaee, F., Flamant, C., Cuesta, J., Oolman, L., Flamant, P., and Khalesifard, H. R. (2012) Dust Transport Over Iraq and Northwest Iran Associated with Winter Shamal: A Case Study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117, Article No. D03201. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016339
[47]
Almazroui, M. (2020) Rainfall Trends and Extremes in Saudi Arabia in Recent Decades. Atmosphere, 11, Article No. 964. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090964
[48]
Solomon, S.C., Liu, H.-L., Marsh, D.R., McInerney, J.M., Qian, L. and Vitt, F.M. (2019) Whole Atmosphere Climate Change: Dependence on Solar Activity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 124, 3799-3809. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JA026678
[49]
Svensmark, H. and Friis-Christensen, E. (1997) Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage—A Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 59, 1225-1232. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6826(97)00001-1
[50]
Svensmark, H., Enghoff, M.B. and Pedersen, J.O.P. (1997) Response of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (>50 nm) to Changes in Ion-Nucleation. Physics Letters A, 377, 2343-2347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2013.07.004
[51]
Svensmark, H., Enghoff, M.B., Shaviv, N.J. and Svensmark, J. (2017) Increased Ionization Supports Growth of Aerosols into Cloud Condensation Nuclei. Nature Communications, 8, Article No. 2199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02082-2
[52]
Svensmark, J., Enghoff, M. B., Shaviv, N., and Svensmark, H. (2016) The Response of Clouds and Aerosols to Cosmic Ray Decreases. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 121, 8152-8181. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022689
[53]
Pennycuick, L. and Norton-Griffiths, M. (1976) Fluctuations in the Rainfall of the Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania. Journal of Biogeography, 3, 125-140. https://doi.org/10.2307/3038141
[54]
Enfield, D.B., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M. and Trimble, P.J. (2001) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Its Relation to Rainfall and River Flows in the Continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 2077-2080. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745
[55]
Gray, L. J., Beer, J., Geller, M., et al. (2010) Solar Influences on Climate. Reviews of Geophysics, 48, Article No. RG4001. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000282
[56]
Lassen, K. and Friis-Christensen, E. (1995) Variability of the Solar Cycle Length during the Past Five Centuries and the Apparent Association with Terrestrial Climate. Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, 57, 835-845. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9169(94)00088-6
[57]
White, W. B., and Liu, Z. (2008) Non-Linear Alignment of El Niño to the 11-yr Solar Cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, Article No. L19607. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034831
