This article examines the effects of climate change on archaeological sites, using as a case study the archaeological site of Ancient Messene in Greece, and proposes an integrated adaptation strategy. In order to determine the site’s most significant risks, a climate data analysis was conducted, taking into account three different climate emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and two future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment methodology was adopted to assess the vulnerability of the archaeological site to the effects of climate change. This is the first time such a methodology has been followed in Greece. The analysis revealed that the site’s critical hazards are fire, desertification, and flooding. The geographical location of the site in an intensely dry microclimate and the lack of safe and functional electromechanical and road infrastructure increase its vulnerability. The materials of the monuments are indirectly and directly impacted by climate change, whereas the vegetation is negatively impacted by the frequency of extreme events, especially wildfires. Based on the analysis results, a five-axis adaptation strategy was developed.
References
[1]
Aubréville, A. (1949). Climats, forêts et désertification de l’Afrique tropicale. Société d’éditions géographiques, maritimes et colonials, Paris, France.
[2]
Bonazza, A., Sardella, A., Kaiser, A., Cacciotti, R., De Nuntiis, P., Hanus, C., Maxwell, I., Drdácky, T., & Drdácky, M. (2021). Safeguarding Cultural Heritage from Climate Change Related Hydrometeorological Hazards in Central Europe. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 63, p.102455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102455
[3]
Calvo, L., Tarrega, R., & DeLuis, E. (2002). The Dynamics of Mediterranean Shrub Species over 12 Years Following Perturbations. Plant Ecology, 160, 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015882812563
[4]
Carmichael, B., Wilson, G., Namarnyilk, I., Nadji, S., Cahill, J., & Bird, D. (2017). Testing the Scoping Phase of a Bottom-Up Planning Guide Designed to Support Australian Indigenous Rangers Manage the Impacts of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage Sites. Local Environment, 22, 1197-1216. https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1332018
[5]
Cassar, J. (2016). Climate Change and Archaeological Sites: Adaptation Strategies. In R.-A. Lefèvre, & C. Sabbioni (Eds.), Cultural Heritage from Pollution to Climate Change (pp. 119-127). Edipuglia srl.
[6]
Ciantelli, C., Palazzi, E., von Hardenberg, J., Vaccaro, C., Tittarelli, F., & Bonazza, A. (2018). How Can Climate Change affect the UNESCO Cultural Heritage Sites in Panama? Geosciences, 8, Article No. 296. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080296
[7]
Daly, C., Cox, P., Cuffe-Fitzgerald, A., Dubs, B., & Pickerill, T. (2010). Monitoring Impacts of Climate Change on Built Heritage. Report of the ICOMOS Ireland Climate Change Sub-Committee.
[8]
Dawson, T., Hambly, J., Kelley, A., Lees, W., & Miller, S. (2020). Coastal Heritage, Global Climate Change, Public Engagement, and Citizen Science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 8280-8286. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912246117
[9]
De Luis, M., Garcia-Cano, M., Cortina, J., Raventos, J., Gonzales-Hidalgo, J., & Sanchez, J. (2001). Climatic Trends, Disturbances and Short-Term Vegetation Dynamics in a Mediterranean Shrubland. Forest Ecology and Management, 147, 25-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00438-2
[10]
DHI (2020). MIKE SHE User Manual. Danish Hydraulic Institute.
[11]
Dimitrakopoulos, A. (2002). Mediterranean Fuel Models and Potential Fire Behaviour in Greece. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 11, 127-130. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF02018
[12]
Dimitriou, H., Kaditis, A. I., Kalantzopoulou, M., Kanellou, H., Maistros, M., Pougkakioti, V., Mallouchou-Tufano, F., & Maistrou, E. (2021). Development of Pilot Assessments and Adaptation Guidelines for Cultural Heritage. In V. Pougkakioti (Ed.), Case Study: The Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene (pp. 17-108). ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage, Athens.
[13]
Dimitriou, Η. (2021). Flood Risk Analysis Due to Climate Change. Case Study: Ancient Messene. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage, Athens.
[14]
Fatoric, S., & Seekamp, E. (2017). Are Cultural Heritage and Resources Threatened by Climate Change? A Systematic Literature Review. Climatic Change, 142, 227-254. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1929-9
[15]
Ferrara, A., Kosmas, C., Salvati, L., Padula, A., Mancino, G., & Nolè, A. (2020). Updating the MEDALUS-ESA Framework for Worldwide Land Degradation and Desertification Assessment. Land Degradation & Development, 31, 1593-1607. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3559
[16]
Gandini, A., Egusquiza, A., Garmendia, L., & San-José, J. T. (2018). Vulnerability Assessment of Cultural Heritage Sites towards Flooding Events. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 364, Article ID: 012028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/364/1/012028
[17]
Giannoulaki, M., & Poulimenea, S. (2000). Mahaon. Hermes. Presentation, Research and Discussion for the Conservation/Restoration of two Marble Sculptures from Ancient Messene. Diploma Thesis, Dept. of Conservation of Antiquities & Works of Art, T.E.I. of Athens.
[18]
Gibbs, H. K., & Salmon, J. M. (2015). Mapping the World’s Degraded Lands. Applied Geography, 57, 12-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.11.024
[19]
Gómez-Bolea, A., Llop, E., Ariño, X., Saiz-Jimenez, C., Bonazza, A., Messina, P., & Sabbioni, C. (2012). Mapping the Impact of Climate Change on Biomass Accumulation on Stone. Journal of Cultural Heritage, 13, 254-258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2011.10.003
[20]
Grossi, C. M., Brimblecombe, P., & Harris, I. (2007). Predicting Long Term Freeze-Thaw Risks on Europe Built Heritage and Archaeological Sites in a Changing Climate. Science of the Total Environment, 377, 273-281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.02.014
[21]
Hajpal, M. (2010). Fire Damaged Stone Structure in Historical Monuments. In Laboratory Analyses of Changes in Natural Stones by Heat Effect (pp. 164-173). CIB Publication.
[22]
Heathcote, J., Fluck, H., & Wiggins, M. (2017). Predicting and Adapting to Climate Change: Challenges for the Historic Environment. The Historic Environment: Policy & Practice, 8, 89-100. https://doi.org/10.1080/17567505.2017.1317071
[23]
Hollesen, J., Callanan, M., Dawson, T., Fenger-Nielsen, R., Friesen, T. M., Jensen, A. M., Markham, A., Martens, V. V., Pitulko, V. V., & Rockman, M. (2018). Climate Change and the Deteriorating Archaeological and Environmental Archives of the Arctic. Antiquity, 92, 573-586. https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2018.8
[24]
ICOMOS Climate Change and Heritage Working Group (2019). The Future of Our Pasts: Engaging Cultural Heritage in Climate Action. Outline of Climate Change and Cultural Heritage. https://indd.adobe.com/view/a9a551e3-3b23-4127-99fd-a7a80d91a29e
[25]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1990). Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990). Cambridge University Press.
[26]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1995). Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[27]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. United Kingdom and Cambridge University Press.
[28]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[29]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.
[30]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2021). AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.
[31]
Kaditis, Α. Ι. (2021). Study of the Behaviour and Expected Risks in the Materials of the Standing and Excavated Monuments of Ancient Messina. Adaptation Proposals. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage.
[32]
Kalantzopoulou, Μ. (2021). Risk Assessment from the Effects of Climate Change. Assessment of Accessibility in Adverse Conditions. Case Study: Ancient Messene. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage.
[33]
Kanellou, Η. (2021). Vegetation Inventory, Vulnerability Assessment and Vegetation Management Proposals for Climate Change Mitigation in the Archaeological Landscape. Case Study: Ancient Messene. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage.
[34]
Kapsomenakis, J., Douvis, C., Poupkou, A., Zerefos, S., Solomos, S., Stavraka, T., Melis, N.S., Kyriakidis, E., Kremlis, G., & Zerefos, C. (2022). Climate Change Threats to Cultural and Natural Heritage UNESCO Sites in the Mediterranean. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02677-w
[35]
Karamesouti, M., Panagos, P., & Kosmas, C. (2018). Model-Based Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Desertification Risk in Greece. Catena, 167, 266-275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.04.042
[36]
Kokkoris, I. (2021). Study of Landscape Vulnerability to Fire, Desertification and Erosion Due to Climate Change. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage.
[37]
Lazoglou, M. (2022). Strengthening the Resilience of Coastal Cities against Climate Change through Spatial Planning: Evidence from Greece. Current Urban Studies, 10, 639-654. https://doi.org/10.4236/cus.2022.104038
[38]
Lazoglou, M., & Serraos, K. (2021). Climate Change Adaptation through Spatial Planning: The Case Study of the Region of Western Macedonia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 899, Article ID: 012021. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/899/1/012021
[39]
Maistros, Μ. (2021). Risk Assessment from the Effects of Climate Change. Analysis of Supporting IT Infrastructure Facilities. Case Study: Ancient Messene. ELLINIKI ETAIRIA Society for the Environment and Cultural Heritage.
[40]
Maistrou, E., Mallouchou-Tufano, F., Pougkakioti, V., Kotzamani, G., & Lazoglou, M. (2021). Development of a Methodology to Monitor and Evaluate the Adaptation of Greek Cultural Heritage to the Effects of Climate Change, In Transdisciplinary Multispectral Modelling and Cooperation for the Preservation of Cultural Heritage (pp. 105-103). National Technical University of Athens.
[41]
Maistrou, E., Pougkakioti, V., & Lazoglou, M. (2022a). Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change at a Historic Settlement: The Case of the Old Town of Corfu. In 5th International Conference on “Changing Cities V: Spatial, Design, Landscape, Heritage & Socio-Economic Dimensions (p. 104). University of Thessaly.
[42]
Maistrou, E., Pougkakioti, V., & Lazoglou, M. (2023). Exploring Participation in the Decision-Making Process in Cultural Heritage Adaptation to Climate Change, Participatory Planning. Experiences, Challenges & Possibilities.
[43]
Maistrou, E., Pougkakioti, V., Lazoglou, M., & Toufano-Mallouchou, F. (2022b). Monument Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change: The Case Study of the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messini. In 6th Panhellenic Conference on Restoration (pp. 214-216). Company for Research and Promotion of the Scientific Restoration of Monuments (ETEPAM).
[44]
Maistrou, Ε., Moraitis, Κ., Konidi, Α. Μ., Boulougoura, Κ., & Moretti, Κ. (2019). Proposals for the formation and promotion of the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene. SOCIETY OF MESSENIAN STUDIES: Meligalas.
[45]
McCarthy, J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., & White, K. S. (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[46]
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M, Weyant, J. P., & Wilbanks, T. J. (2010). The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
[47]
Mouillot, F., Rambal, S., & Joffre, R. (2002). Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Fire Frequency and Vegetation Dynamics. Global Change Biology, 8, 423-437. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00494.x
[48]
Orr, S. A., Richards, J., & Fatorić, S. (2021). Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: A Systematic Literature Review (2016-2020). The Historic Environment: Policy & Practice, 12, 434-477. https://doi.org/10.1080/17567505.2021.1957264
[49]
Penuelas, J. (2007). Response of Plant Species Richness and Primary Productivity in Shrublands along a North-South Gradient in Europe to Seven Years of Experimental Warming and Drought: Reductions in Primary Productivity in the Heat and Drought Year of 2003. Global Change Biology, 13, 2563-2581. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01464.x
[50]
Sabbioni, C., Cassar, M., Brimblecombe, P., & Lefevre, R. A. (2008). Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change. European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR-OPA) (pp. 1-24).
[51]
Sesana, E., Gagnon, A. S., Bonazza, A., & Hughes, J. J. (2020). An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Vulnerability of World Heritage Sites to Climate Change Impacts. Journal of Cultural Heritage, 41, 211-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2019.06.013
[52]
Sesana, E., Gagnon, A. S., Ciantelli, C., Cassar, J., & Hughes, J. J. (2021). Climate Change Impacts on Cultural Heritage: A Literature Review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 12, e710. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.710
[53]
Sitzia, F., Peters, M. J., & Lisci, C. (2022). Climate Change and Its Outcome on the Archaeological Areas and Their Building Materials. The Case Study of Tharros (Italy). Digital Applications in Archaeology and Cultural Heritage, 25, e00226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.daach.2022.e00226
[54]
Themelis, P. (2010). Ancient Messene. History-Monuments-People. Militos Editions.
[55]
UNESCO World Heritage Centre (2007). Climate Change and World Heritage. Report on Predicting and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on World Heritage and Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses. Paris.
[56]
UNESCO World Heritage Centre (2008). Policy Document on the Impacts of Climate Change on World Heritage Properties. Document WHC-07/16.GA/10 Adopted by the 16th General Assembly of States Parties to the World Heritage Convention (October 2007). http://whc.unesco.org/en/CC-policy-document
[57]
Viegas, D. X., Bovio, G., Ferreira, A., Nosenzo, A., & Sol, B. (1999). Comparative Study of Various Methods of Fire Danger Evaluation in Southern Europe. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 9, 235-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF00015
[58]
Vrachnakis, M. (2015). Grasslands Management. Greek Academic Digital Texts and Manuals-Kallipos. Greek Libraries. (in Greek)
