中国对44个AfCFTA成员国的出口潜力研究——基于引力模型的分析
Research on China’s Export Potential for 44 AfCFTA Member Countries—An Analysis Research Based on Gravity Model

本文分析了2009至2018年这十年来中国出口44个AfCFTA初始成员国的贸易数据，并构建贸易引力模型研究了决定中国对AfCFTA各成员国出口额的影响因素。实证分析表明，经济规模、人口规模、人均收入水平相似度、是否为内陆国是中国对AfCFTA各成员国出口流量的影响因素，其中经济规模及是否为内陆国是最重要的影响因素。随后预测了中国对44个AfCFTA成员国的出口潜力指数。整体而言，2009至2018年来，中国对44个AfCFTA成员国的出口呈现“贸易过度”的状况。中非贸易增长已进入瓶颈期，急需像AfCFTA这类新的贸易制度安排作为新的经济增长点。最后本文简要就构建的引力模型分析了AfCFTA的成立对中国向埃及、加纳、肯尼亚出口的影响，希冀为未来的学者探讨AfCFTA成立后对于中国出口贸易的影响提供参考。
This paper analyzes the trade data of China’s 44 initial AfCFTA members from 2009 to 2018, and constructs a trade gravity model to study the influencing factors that determine China’s exports to each AfCFTA member. The empirical analysis shows that economic scale, population scale, similarity of per capita income level and whether China is a landlocked country are the influencing factors of export flow of AfCFTA member countries, among which economic scale and whether China is a landlocked country are the most important influencing factors. Then the export potential index of China to 44 AfCFTA member countries is predicted. Overall, from 2009 to 2018, China’s exports to the 44 AfCFTA members showed “excessive trade”. China-Africa trade growth has entered a bottleneck period, and new trade system arrangements like AfCFTA are urgently needed as new economic growth points. Finally, this paper briefly analyzes the influence of the establishment of AfCFTA on China’s export to Egypt, Ghana and Kenya based on the constructed gravity model, hoping to provide a reference for future scholars to discuss the influence of the establishment of AfCFTA on China’s export trade.