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长江流域上游水文情势变化分析计算
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Abstract:
长江流域上游水库陆续建设运行，改变了天然河流水文情势。本文基于宜昌站1949~2022年实测流量序列，应用Mann-Kendall检验法并考虑上游梯级水库建设进程，将流量序列划分为1949~1995年、1996~2014年和2015~2022年三个时期。采用IHA-RVA法分析计算长江流域上游水文情势变化，在气候变化和上游梯级水库联合运行调度背景下，1996~2014年长江上游整体水文改变度为49.2%，呈中度改变；近年由于乌东德、白鹤滩等大型水库建成运行，2015~2022年整体水文改变度上升至74.2%，呈重度改变；月均流量、极端流量和流量变化率分类指标均发生重大变化。
As the construction and operation of the cascade reservoirs in the upper Yangtze River basin, the hydrological regime has been altered from its natural conditions. Based on the measured flow series of Yichang hydrological station from 1949 to 2022, the flow data series is divided into three periods including 1949~1995, 1996~2014 and 2015~2022 by using the Mann-Kendall test method and considering the construction process of upstream cascade reservoirs. The IHA-RVA method is applied to analyze the hydrological regime in the upper Yangtze River basin. The results show that the overall hydrological regime alteration is a moderate change (49.2%) from 1996 to 2014, and a severe change (74.2%) from 2015 to 2022 as the construction of the upstream large-scale cascade reservoirs. The large alteration is mainly reflected in the indicators such as monthly average flow, extreme flow, and flow change rate.
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