人口老龄化视角下个人养老金制度长期均衡发展路径研究——基于ISM模型
Study on the Long-Term Balanced Development Path of Individual Pension System from the Perspective of Population Aging—Based on the ISM Model

人口老龄化是指人口中老年人口比例逐渐增加的趋势。这是一个全球性的现象，与人口结构的变化和长寿化有关。人口老龄化带来了许多经济、社会和政治方面的挑战，对个人养老金的长期均衡发展产生深远影响。本文从国家层面、金融机构层面、个人层面等3个维度出发，得出18个相关因素，运用ISM模型分析因素之间相互关系以及影响路径，绘制出多层递阶结构图，分析因素影响机理。结果表明，配套政策、税收优势、市场秩序、金融机构服务质量、机构安全性、机构竞争力、基本养老保险参与情况、个人养老规划、国民养老投资储备意识、自身金融素养以及个人投资意愿等因素是影响个人养老金长期均衡发展的表层因素；政策宣传力度、婚姻状况和个人收入、身体健康状况和工作性质是中间层影响因素；文化程度、年龄是深层影响因素。
Population aging refers to the trend that the proportion of the middle-aged and elderly population gradually increases. This is a global phenomenon associated with demographic changes and longevity. The ageing population poses many economic, social and political challenges and has a profound impact on the long-term balanced development of individual pensions. Starting from the national level, financial institution level and individual level, this paper obtains 18 related factors. The ISM model is used to analyze the interrelationship and influence path of factors, draw a multi-layer hierarchical structure map, and analyze the influence mechanism of factors. The results show that supporting policies, tax advantage, market order, service quality of financial institutions, institutional safety, institutional competitiveness, basic endowment insurance participation, personal pension planning, national pension investment reserve consciousness, personal financial literacy and personal investment willingness are the surface factors affecting the long-term balanced development of personal pension; policy publicity, marital status, personal income, physical health status and work nature are the intermediate influencing factors; education level and age are the deep influencing factors.