城乡居民养老保险金对养老意愿的影响
The Influence of Urban and Rural Residents’ Pension Insurance on Their Pension Intention

中国人口老龄化的程度正加速变深，老年群体数量骤增，老年人的养老问题已经成为关注的重点问题，社会经济发展和文化环境等因素也在影响养老意愿。伴随“城乡居民养老保险制度”的进一步完善，城乡居民养老保险金对老年人的养老选择产生了影响。文章运用2018年中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)公开数据，借助二元Logistic回归模型分析城乡居民养老保险金对老年人的养老意愿的影响。研究发现：城乡居民养老保险金越大，老人住养老院与托老院养老(即选择机构养老)的可能性越高。此外，老年人的户口情况与老年人的养老意愿在1%的水平上存在显著的正相关关系；老年人的身体健康状况与老年人的养老意愿在1%的水平上存在显著的负相关关系。
The degree of population aging in China is accelerating and deepening, and the number of elderly groups is rapidly increasing. The problem of old-age care for the elderly has become a key issue of concern. Factors such as social and economic development and cultural environment are also affecting the willingness to care for the elderly. With the further improvement of the “urban and rural residents’ pension insurance system”, the urban and rural residents’ pension insurance has an impact on the elderly’s choice of pension. Based on the open data of the 2018 China Senior Social Tracking Survey (CLASS), this paper analyzes the impact of urban and rural residents’ pension insurance on the elderly’s willingness to support their lives with the help of a binary Logistic regression model. The study found that the larger the pension insurance of urban and rural residents, the higher the likelihood of the elderly living in nursing homes and nursing homes (that is, choosing institutional pension). In addition, there is a significant positive correlation between the household registration of the elderly and the willingness of the elderly at the level of 1%. There is a significant negative correlation between the health status of the elderly and the willingness of the elderly at the level of 1%.