中国制造业碳排放驱动因素研究——基于LMDI方法
Research on the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China’s Manufacturing Industry—Based on LMDI Method

中国制造业是工业的重要组成部分，是我国国民经济的支柱，是推进社会主义现代化建设的重要依托。然而，中国制造业碳排放占总行业35.78%，是碳排放增长的主要来源之一。本文采用2005年到2019年中国制造业分行业的碳排放量、能源消耗、增加值以及人口规模面板数据，借鉴Kaya恒等式，构建分行业LMDI分解模型，对中国制造业碳排放量在各个时期的驱动因素进行了实证分析，基于脱钩指数模型，对影响碳排放和经济增长的脱钩关系进行了分析。结果表明：1) 我国制造业能源消费结构不均衡，高碳化特征显著，焦炭为主要燃料；2) 中国制造业碳排放主要集中在黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业和石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业等行业。3) 能源强度、能源结构对碳排放增长产生抑制作用，经济增长和行业规模对碳排放增长产生促进作用。4) 制造业的强脱钩状态表明在此期间国家出台的节能减排政策是有效，但是制造业与经济脱钩状态不够稳定性。应在中国制造业重点行业调整能源结构，增加可再生能源利用比例；提高能源利用效率，化解过剩产能，以助推实现碳达峰和碳中和。
China’s manufacturing industry is an important component of industry, a pillar of China’s national economy, and an important support for promoting socialist modernization construction. However, carbon emissions from China’s manufacturing industry account for 35.78% of the total industry, making it one of the main sources of carbon emissions growth. This paper uses the Panel data on carbon emissions, energy consumption, added value and population size of China’s manufacturing industries from 2005 to 2019. It draws on Kaya’s identity to build a sub-industry LMDI decomposition model. It empirically analyses the driving factors of China’s manufacturing carbon emissions in each period. Based on the decoupling index model, it analyzes the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth. The results indicate that: 1) Coke is the primary fuel for energy consumption in the manufacturing industry, and the high carbonization characteristics of the energy consumption pattern are significant, with ample space for optimizing the energy consumption structure; 2) China’s manufacturing carbon emis-sions are mainly concentrated in Ferrous smelting and rolling processing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries. 3) Energy intensity and structure have an inhibitory effect on the growth of carbon emissions, while economic growth and industry scale have a promoting effect on the growth of carbon emissions. 4) The solid decoupling state of the manufacturing industry indicates that the energy-saving and emission-reduction policies introduced by the country during this period are effective. Still, the decoupling state of the manufacturing industry from the economy needs to be more stable. We should adjust the energy structure in key manufacturing industries and increase the proportion of renewable energy utilization, improve energy utilization efficiency, resolve excess capacity, and promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.