收入增长释放了居民的消费潜力吗？——基于山东省居民收入与消费数据的研究
Does Income Growth Unleash Consumption Potential?—Based on the Income and Consumption Data of Residents in Shandong Province

居民消费水平对一个地区的经济发展和综合实力提升有很大影响，而居民收入是影响居民消费的最主要因素之一，通过研究居民收入对消费的影响能够更好地指导提振消费。本文以山东省为研究对象，运用Stata 14.0分析2000~2021年城镇和农村居民收入和消费的整体情况，基于凯恩斯消费函数对城乡居民人均可支配收入和人均消费支出的关系进行实证研究，并在此基础上对比分析城乡之间居民自发消费和边际消费倾向的差异。结果显示，山东省农村居民自发消费与城镇居民差距较大，但边际消费倾向高于城镇居民。最后，根据实证研究结论提出了进一步激发居民消费潜力的政策建议。
The level of residents’ consumption has a great impact on the economic development and com-prehensive strength improvement of a region, and residents’ income is one of the most important factors affecting residents’ consumption. Studying the impact of residents’ income on consumption can better guide the promotion of consumption. This paper takes Shandong Province as the research object, uses Stata 14.0 to analyze the overall situation of urban and rural residents’ income and consumption during 2000~2021, and conducts an empirical study on the relationship between per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents based on Keynesian consumption function. On this basis, the differences of spontaneous consumption and marginal consumption tendency between urban and rural residents are compared. The results show that there is a large gap between rural residents’ spontaneous consumption and that of urban residents in Shandong Province, but the marginal consumption tendency is higher than that of urban residents. Finally, according to the conclusion of the empirical study, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to further stimulate the consumption potential of residents.