The study focused on the
detection of indicators of climate change in 24-hourlyannual maximum
series (AMS) rainfall data collected for 36 years (1982-2017) for Warri
Township, using different statistical methods yielded a statistically
insignificant positive mild trend. The IMD and MCIMD downscaled model’s time series data respectively produced MK
statistics varying from 1.403 to 1.4729, and 1.403 to 1.463 which were less
than the critical Z-value of 1.96. Also, the slope magnitude obtained showed a
mild increasing trend in variation from 0.0189 to 0.3713, and 0.0175 to 0.5426,
with the rate of change in rainfall intensity at 24 hours duration as 0.4536 and
0.42 mm/hr.year (4.536 and 4.2 mm/decade) for the IMD and the MCIMD time series
data, respectively. The trend change point date occurred in the year 2000 from
the distribution-free CUSUM test with the trend maintaining a significant and
steady increase from 2010 to 2015. Thus, this study established the existence
of a trend, which is an indication of a changing climate, and satisfied the
condition for rainfall Non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency (NS-IDF)
modeling required for infrastructural design for combating flooding events.
References
[1]
UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 31 October-13 November 2021. https://ukcop26.org/
[2]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2023) AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. https://www.ipcc.ch/
[3]
Bărbulescu, A. (2023) On the Regional Temperature Series Evolution in the South-Eastern Part of Romania. Applied Science, 13, Article 3904. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13063904
[4]
Schultz, P.A. and Halpert, M.S. (1993) Global Correlation of Temperature, NDVI and Precipitation. Advances in Space Research, 13, 277-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(93)90559-T
[5]
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaškovičová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., et al. (2009) A Compilation of Data on European Flash Floods. Journal of Hydrology, 367, 70-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.028
[6]
Giorgi, F. and Anyah, R.O. (2012) The Road towards RegCM4. Climate Research, 52, 3-6. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01089
[7]
Huang, M., Lin, Q., Pan, N., Fan, N., Jiang, T., He, Q. and Huang, L. (2019) Short-Term Precipitation Forecasting Rolling Update Correction Technology Based on Optimal Fusion Correction. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protectio, 7, 145-159. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2019.73008
[8]
Margaritidis, A. (2021) Site and Regional Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Central Macedonia, Greece. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 10, 49-70. https://doi.org/10.4236/cweee.2021.102004
[9]
Sam, M.G., Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ikebude, C. (2022) Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data. Journal of Water Resources and Protection, 14, 592-609. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2022.148031
[10]
Barbulescu, A. and Postolache, F. (2023) Are the Regional Precipitation and Temperature Series Correlated? Case Study from Dobrogea, Romania. Hydrology, 10, Article 109. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050109
[11]
Turoglu, H. (2014) Detection of Changes on Temperature and Precipitation Features in Istanbul (Turkey). Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 549-562. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.44050
[12]
Bărbulescu, A., Postolache, F. and Dumitriu, C.S. (2021) Estimating the Precipitation Amount at Regional Scale Using a New Tool, Climate Analyzer. Hydrology, 8, Article 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030125
[13]
Ferrari, E., Coscarelli, R. and Sirangelo, B. (2018) Correlation Analysis of Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation in a Region of Southern Italy. Geosciences, 8, Article 160. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8050160
[14]
Lhotka, O. and Kysely, J. (2022) Precipitation—Temperature Relationships over Europe in CORDEX Regional Climate Models. International Journal of Climatology, 42, 4868-4880. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7508
[15]
Vrac, M., Thao, S. and Yiou, P. (2022) Changes in Temperature—Precipitation Correlations over Europe: Are Climate Models Reliable? Climate Dynamics, 60, 2713-2733. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06436-5
[16]
Ayensu, A. (2004) Assessment of Climate Change and Vulnerability Trends in Temperature and Rainfall. Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 9, 21-27.
[17]
Zhai, P. and Pan, X. (2003) Trends in Temperature Extremes during 1951-1999 in China. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, Article 1913. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018004
[18]
Tuller, S.E. (2004) Measured Wind Speed Trends on the West Coast of Canada. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1359-1374. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1073
[19]
Adejuwon, J.O. (2012) Rainfall Seasonality in the Niger Delta Belt, Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 5, 51-60.
[20]
Olaniyi, O.A., Funmlayo, O.A. and Olutimehin, I.O. (2014) Review of Climate Change and Its Effect on Nigeria Ecosystem. International Journal of Environment and Pollution Research, 2, 70-81.
[21]
Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ologhadien, I. (2014) Trend in Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment of Nigerian Gulf of Guinea. Standard Scientific Research and Essays, 2, 516-523.
[22]
Ebele, N.E. and Emodi, N.V. (2016) Climate Change and Its Impact in Nigerian Economy. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 10, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.9734/JSRR/2016/25162
[23]
Elisha, I., Sawa, B.A. and Lawrence, E.U. (2017) Evidence of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies among Grain Farmers in Sokoto State, Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology (IOSR-JESTFT), 11, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.9790/2402-1103020107
[24]
Sam, M.G., Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ikebude, C. (2022) Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modelling. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 12, 44-60. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2022/v12i230628
[25]
Zhang, Q., Liu, C., Xu, C.Y., Xu, Y. and Jiang, T. (2006) Observed Trends of Annual Maximum Water Level and Streamflow during Past 130 Years in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 324, 255-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.023
Lehmann, E.L. (1975) Non-Parametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
[29]
Longobardi, A. and Villani, P. (2010) Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Time Series in the Mediterranean Area. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1538-1546.
[30]
Zhang, Y.M., Wen, J. and Wang, X.H. (2011) Study on the Change Trend of Precipitation and Temperature in Kunming City Based on Mann-Kendall Analysis. In: Zhang, T., Ed., Future Computer, Communication, Control and Automation, Springer, Berlin, 505-513. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25538-0_71
[31]
Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379-1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
[32]
McGilchrist, C.A. and Woodyer, K.D. (1975) Note on a Distribution-Free Cusum Technique. Technometrics, 17, 321-325. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1975.10489335
[33]
Taubenheim, J. (1989) An Easy Procedure for Detecting a Discontinuity in a Digital Time Series. Zeitschrift für Meteorologie, 39, 344-347.
[34]
Sneyers, R. (1990) On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meterological Organizaion, Geneva.
[35]
Baranowski, R. and Fryzlewicz, P. (2019) WBS: Wild Binary Segmentation for Multiple Change-Point Detection. R Package Version 1.4. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/wbs/wbs.pdf
[36]
Fryzlewicz, P. (2014) WBS: Wild Binary Segmentation for Multiple Change-Point Detection. Annals of Statistics, 42, 2243-2281. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1245
[37]
Erdman, C. and Emerson, J.W. (2007) BCP: An R Package for Performing a Bayesian Analysis of Change Point Problems. Journal of Statistical Software, 23, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v023.i03
[38]
Seabold, S. and Perktold, J. (2010) Satsmodel: Econometric and Statistical Modeling with Python. 9th Python in Science Conference, Austin, 28-30 June 2010, 92-96. https://doi.org/10.25080/Majora-92bf1922-011
[39]
R Core Team (2021) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
[40]
Patakamuri, S.K. (2022) Trendchange: Innovative Trend Analysis and Time-Series Change Point Analysis. The R Project for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
[41]
Iwegbue, C.M.A., Nwajei, G.W. and Eguavoen, O.I. (2014) Impact of Land-Use Patterns on Chemical Properties of Trace Elements in Soils of Rural, Semi-Urban, and Urban Zones of the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Soil and Sediment Contamination: An International Journal, 21, 19-30. https://doi.org/10.1080/15320383.2012.636772
[42]
Sam, M.G., Nwaogazie, I.L. and Ikebude, C. (2021) Improving Indian Meteorological Department Method for 24-Hourly Rainfall Downscaling to Shorter Durations for IDF Modeling. International Journal of Hydrology, 5, 72-82. https://doi.org/10.15406/ijh.2021.05.00268
[43]
Ramaseshan, S. (1996) Urban Hydrology in Different Climate Conditions. Lecture Notes of the International Course on Urban Drainage in Developing Countries, Regional Engineering College, Warangal, India.
[44]
Rashid, M., Faruque, S. and Alam, J. (2012) Modelling of Short Duration Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (SDRIDF) Equation for Sylhet City in Bangladesh. ARPN Journal of Science and Technology, 2, 92-95.
[45]
Gilbert, R.O. (1987) Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
[46]
Von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. Springer Verlag, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03167-4
[47]
Hamed, K.H. and Rao, A.R. (1998) A Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test for Auto-Correlated Data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
[48]
Yue, S. and Wang, C.Y. (2002) The Applicability of Pre-Whitening to Eliminate the Influence of Serial Correlation on the Mann-Kendall Test. Water Resources Research, 38, 4-1-4-7. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000861
[49]
Sam, M.G., Nwaogazie, I.L., Ikebude, C., Inyang, U.J. and Irokwe, J.O. (2023) Assessment of Climate Change Induced Trend, Magnitude, and Change Point Date in 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Rainfall Data for Port Harcourt Metropolis in Nigeria. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 13, 118-128. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2023/v13i71859
[50]
Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002) The Influence of Autocorrelation on the Ability to Detect Trend in Hydrological Series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1807-1829. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
[51]
Shadmani, M., Maron, S. and Roknian, M. (2012) Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Test in Arid Regions of Iran. Water Resources Management, 26, 211-224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9913-z
[52]
Ahmad, I., Tango, D., Wang, T., Wang, M. and Wagan, B. (2015) Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, 2015, Article ID: 431860. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860
[53]
Okafor, G.C., Jimoh, O.D. and Larbi, K.I. (2017) Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 7, 161-175. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2017.72012
