基于Z值模型的中公教育财务风险研究
Research on Financial Risk of Offcn Education Based on Z Value Model

本文使用Z值模型和EMS模型，结合中公教育2017~2022年的财务报告中的相关数据，对中公教育对赌协议完成后的财务风险进行评估分析，以此发现影响中公教育业绩“变脸”的主要因素。通过对比分析Z值与EMS模型的各因素，发现EsMS模型中X₁指标是影响其财务风险变化的主要因素、X₄指标是影响其财务风险的重要因素，还发现EMS模型预估新兴行业的财务风险更为准确。而且通过对EMS模型中X4指标的数据分析，测算出2018年中公教育就已经存在较大的财务风险，与其2018~2020年业绩迅猛增加并到达顶峰的情况不符。
In this paper, Z-value model and EMS model are used, combined with the relevant data in the fi-nancial report of Zhonggong Education from 2017 to 2022, to evaluate and analyze the financial risks after the completion of the gambling agreement of Zhonggong Education, in order to find out the main factors affecting the performance of Zhonggong Education “face change”. Through com-parative analysis of Z-value and EMS model indicators it is found that X₁ index in the EMS model is the main factor affecting the change of its financial risk, X₄ index is an important affecting its fi-nancial risk, also found that the EMS model is more accurate to predict the financial risk of emerging industries. Moreover, through the data analysis of the X₄ index in the EMS model, it is calculated that in 2018, there is already a large financial risk, which is inconsistent with the rapid increase and peak of its performance in 2018~2020.