泰山景区舒适度指数预报方法研究
Study on the Forecast Method of Comfort Index of Mount Tai Scenic Spot

泰山景区天气复杂多变，常规天气预报已经不能满足广大游客对于泰山景区旅游气象服务的需求，本文针对旅游气象服务需求，开展人体舒适度指数预报研究，收集整理了2019年泰山及其周边地区的各类资料，利用舒适度指数国家标准，结合泰山景区实际，进行本地化优化。泰山景区常年平均风速大于3 m/s，因此在优化泰山气候舒适度时主要以风效指数为依据，根据舒适度半数原则对指数区间进行本地化优化，将优化后的指数与2019年泰山景区全年客流量日变化进行对比发现，相关系数为0.84，具有显著相关关系，证明该舒适度指数计算方法在泰山本地有较好的适用性。
The weather in Taishan scenic area is complex and changeable, and the conventional weather forecast can no longer meet the tourists’ demand for tourism meteorological services in Taishan Scenic area. In this paper, according to the tourism meteorological demand, the human comfort index forecast research is carried out, and various data of Taishan and its surrounding areas in 2019 are collected and sorted out. By using the national comfort index standard and combining with the actual situation of Taishan scenic area, localization optimization was performed. The annual average wind speed of Taishan Scenic spot is greater than 3 m/s. Therefore, when optimizing the climate comfort level of Taishan Scenic spot, the wind efficiency index is mainly taken as the basis, and the index interval is optimized locally according to the half principle of comfort level. The optimized index is compared with the daily change of annual tourist flow of Taishan Scenic Spot in 2019, and the correlation coefficient is 0.84. It is proved that the comfort index calculation method has good applicability in Mount Tai.