基于FLUS和InVEST模型的山东省生态系统服务研究
Study on Ecosystem Services in Shandong Province Based on FLUS and InVEST Models

目的：模拟山东省在城市自然扩张、生态保护红线和耕地保护三种模拟情景下，2050年土地利用类型的变化，并据此分析未来生态系统服务的空间分布情况。方法：基于山东省2000年与2020年土地利用类型数据，运用FLUS模型模拟2050年三种情景下的山东省土地利用类型，并运用InVEST模型分析三种模拟情景下的四种关键生态系统服务的空间格局变化。结果：1) 在三种模拟情景下，城市自然扩张情景城乡建设用地面积最大，林草地面积都有不同程度的减少，耕地面积在城市自然扩张情景下有较明显的降低；2) 三种模拟情景在四种关键生态系统服务中与2020年对比，总体呈现出下降的趋势，生态保护红线情景下的土地利用变化在三种情景中对生态系统服务的影响最小。结论：在生态保护红线情景下，2050年四种关键生态系统服务的总体效益最佳，在未来的发展中，对重点地区进行重点管理、采取对生态保护红线内严格限制政策是保护地区生态环境、坚持可持续发展的较为有效的手段。
Obstructive: The spatial distribution of future ecosystem services in Shandong Province was analyzed based on the changes in land use types in 2050 under three simulation scenarios: urban natural expansion, ecological protection redline and cultivated land protection. Method: Based on the land use type data of Shandong Province in 2000 and 2020, the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use type of Shandong Province under the three scenarios in 2050, and the spatial pattern changes of the four key ecosystem services under the three simulation scenarios were analyzed by the InVEST model. Result: 1) Under the above three simulation scenarios, the urban and rural construction land area was the largest in the urban natural expansion scenario, the forest and grassland area was reduced to varying degrees, and the cultivated land area was significantly reduced under the urban natural expansion scenario; 2) The three simulation scenarios showed an overall downward trend in the four key ecosystem services compared with 2020, and the land-use change under the ecological redline scenario had the least impact on ecosystem services among the three scenarios. Conclusion: Under the ecological protection redline scenario, the overall benefits of the four key ecosystem services in 2050 are the best, and in future development, key management of key areas and strict restrictions on the ecological protection redline policy are more effective means to protect the regional ecological environment and adhere to sustainable development.