蒙特卡洛法在花庄油田页岩油储量估算上的应用
Application of Monte Carlo Method to Estimation of Shale Oil Reserves in Huazhuang Oilfield

蒙特卡洛法又称概率统计法，该方法以随机变量为对象，以概率论为理论基础，计算得到的结果是一条储量概率分布曲线。使用时可以按照不同的需要选择不同可靠程度的储量数值。勘探初期可选用概率低的大储量数值作为勘探的风险值；而在开发初期，可选用概率高的小储量数值。本文论述了概率法的储量估算原理，以花庄油田三个井区为例，建立了储量计算参数的数学模型，计算出了各储量参数的概率分布曲线以及各个计算单元的储量概率分布曲线，最终累加得到花庄油田的储量概率分布曲线。在一般储量计算方法得不到确定值的情况下，使用概率法选择一个范围值比选用一个确定值更能反映人们对地下的认识程度，对勘探开发工作更具有指导意义。概率法被国外石油公司广泛使用，已成为资源量、储量计算的常规方法之一。
Monte Carlo method is also known as probability statistics method. This method takes random variables as the object and probability theory as the theoretical basis. The calculated result is a probability distribution curve of reserves. Reserve values with different reliability can be selected according to different needs. At the initial stage of exploration, large reserves with low probability can be selected as the exploration risk value. In the early stage of development, small reserves with high probability can be selected. This paper discusses the reserve estimation principle of proba-bilistic method, takes three well areas of Huazhuang Oilfield as an example, establishes the mathematical model of the reserve calculation parameters, calculates the probability distribution curve of each reserve parameter and the probability distribution curve of each calculation unit, and finally gets the reserve probability distribution curve of Huazhuang oilfield. When the general reserve calculation method cannot be determined, using probability method to select a range value can reflect people’s understanding of underground better than using a certain value, and has more guiding significance for exploration and development work. Probability method is widely used by foreign oil companies, and has become one of the conventional methods to calculate resources and reserves.