江西省数字经济发展对碳排放的影响效应及作用机制
The Impact Effect and Mechanism of the Development of the Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province

当前数字经济发展已成为江西省高质量发展的“新名片”，与此同时，碳达峰、碳中和目标提出后，江西省也致力于全力打造绿色转型发展的先行之地、示范之地。实现“双碳”目标是一个系统性、复杂性的工程，数字经济的应用可有效助推江西省绿色低碳发展目标顺利完成。本文基于2010年~2020年江西省省际数据，运用VAR模型系统探索数字经济发展对碳排放的影响及作用机制。研究发现：第一，江西省数字经济的发展对碳排放量具有负向影响，且这种影响较为长远但会逐期减弱，即数字经济将会持续抑制二氧化碳的排放。第二，江西省数字经济发展驱动能源结构在长期内对江西省碳排放具有持续减弱的负向作用，且在短期内这种负向作用的波动和效应更为明显。基于上述结论，本文提出两方面对策建议：一方面要提高数字经济发展质量；另一方面，要重视能源结构。
At present, the development of the digital economy has become the “new business card” of high-quality development in Jiangxi Province, At the same time, after the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality was proposed, Jiangxi Province is also committed to building a pioneer and demonstration place for green transformation and development. Achieving the “dual carbon” goal is a systematic and complex project, and the application of digital economy can effectively promote the successful completion of Jiangxi Province’s green and low-carbon development goals. Based on the data of Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2020, the paper uses the VAR model system to explore the impact and mechanism of digital economy development on carbon emissions. The results show that: First, the development of digital economy in Jiangxi Province has a negative impact on carbon emissions, and this impact is relatively long-term but will weaken periodically, that is, the digital economy will continue to curb carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the energy structure driven by the development of the digital economy in Jiangxi Province has a continuously weakening negative effect on Jiangxi Province’s carbon emissions in the long run, and the fluctuations and effects of this negative effect are more obvious in the short term. Based on the above research conclusions, the paper proposes two countermeasures: on the one hand, we should improve the quality of the development of the digital economy; on the other hand, we must pay attention to the energy structure.