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Statistical Analysis of Effect of Population on Economic Growth in Uganda (2000-2020)

DOI: 10.4236/ti.2023.142006, PP. 101-118

Keywords: Economic, Growth, Population, Statistics, Uganda

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Abstract:

This study was aimed at examining the effect of population on economic growth in Uganda from 2000 to 2020. Specifically, the objectives were to; examine the Effect of age dependency ratio on economic growth in Uganda, to establish the effect of total fertility rate on economic growth in Uganda, and to assess the effect of enrollment in primary schools on economic growth in Uganda. A longitudinal study design was used to study the effect of population increase in Uganda from years 2000 to 2020 and relevant data were sourced World Bank Development Indicators database. Augmented Dickey Fuller test was applied for test of stationarity. Similarly, the test for classical linear regression model (CLRM), autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity assumptions was done. Multiple linear regression model was employed to model the effect of the increase in population on economic growth in Uganda. The study found a statistically significant negative effect of age dependency ratio on economic growth (β = ?1.201591, P-value = (0.029) < 0.05). The model findings revealed that total fertility rate had a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth in Uganda (β = ?6.465372, P-value = (0.046) < 0.05). The findings revealed that primary school enrolment did not have a significant effect on economic growth in Uganda. Conclusively, growth in age dependency ratio and increase in total fertility rate significantly reduces the economic growth in Uganda.

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