This study intends to examine the effects of
political unrest and government infrastructure spending on economic growth in
the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1980 and 2020. This is being done
to assess the relationship between public infrastructure and economic growth in
the DRC as well as the impact that political instability has on that
relationship. According to the findings of
an econometric regression that employed estimation techniques ranging from the most basic to the most reliable,
such as the ordinary leastsquares
(OLS) method, fully modified least squares (FMOLS, Philips Hansen),
canonical cointegration regression (CCR, Park), and vector error correction
model (VECM), a positive relationship between infrastructure spending and
long-term economic growth has been found at the ground level. It also seems
that political unrest has an impact on infrastructure spending, which has an
impact on economic growth both directly and indirectly.
References
[1]
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth, 8, 155-194.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w9411
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024471506938
[2]
Alesina, A., Ozler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 189-211. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138862
[3]
Arrow, K. J., & Kurz, M. (1970). Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy. Johns Hopkins Press.
[4]
Aschauer, D. A. (1989a). Does Public Capital Crowd out Private Capital? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, 171-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90002-0
[5]
Aschauer, D. A. (1989b). Is Public Expenditure Productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90047-0
[6]
Aschauer, D. A. (1990). Highway Capacity and Economic Growth. Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 14, 14-24.
[7]
Aschauer, D. A. (1991). Infrastructure America’s Third Deficit (pp. 93-45). Challenge, Marsavril. https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.1991.11471496
[8]
Bakaboukila, A. E., & Hakizimana, J. (2021). Effects of Political Instability on Economic Growth in the Republic of Congo. Modern Economy, 12, 1896-1912.
https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.1212099
[9]
Bangqiao, J. (2001). Revue des études sur la relation entre les investissements dans l’infrastructure des transports et la croissance économique. Rapport pour le Comité d’examen de la Loi sur les transports au Canada, Vancouver.
http://www.bv.transports.gouv.qc.ca/mono/0774861.pdf
[10]
Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98, S103-S125. https://doi.org/10.1086/261726
[11]
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-443. http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Barro91.pdf
https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
[12]
Campos, N. F., & Karanasos G. M. (2008). Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000. Economics Letters, 100, 135-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2007.12.013
[13]
CBC (2018). Rapport de politique monétaire. Kinshasa.
https://www.bcc.cd/publications/rapports
Chua, H. B. (1993). Regional Spillover and Economic Growth (pp. 145-160). Centre Discussion Paper, No. 700, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
[16]
Coe and Moghadam (1993). Capital and Trade as Engines of Growth in France: An Application of Johansen’s Cointegration Methodology. IMF Working Papers, 40, 542-566.
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.883430
[17]
Collier, P., Elliot, V. L., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Quérol, M., & Sambanis, N. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy (Vol. 41181, No. 4, pp. 1-211). A Copublication of the World Bank and Oxford University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1037/e504012013-001
https://books.google.cd/books?hl=fr&lr=&id=3PLqetBxiOEC&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&dq=Collier+et+al.+ (2003).+Breaking+the+Conflict+Trap:+Civil+War+and+Develop-ment+Policy.++ https://doi.org/10.1037/e504012013-001&ots=PTX0GW9d4v&sig=mspgInpKN6feKrI3bgyT8R6gIQk&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
[18]
Creel, J., Heyer, E., & Plane, M. (2011). Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps: Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle. Revue de l’OFCE, 1, 61-88.
https://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2011-1-page-61.htm
https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.116.0061
[19]
Esfahani, H. S., & Ramírez, M. T. (2003). Institutions, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 70, 443-477.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00105-0
[20]
Finn, M. (1993). Is All Government Capital Productive? Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 79, 53-80.
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/1993/fall/pdf/finn.pdf
[21]
Flores de Frutos, R., & Méndez, M. J. (1998). Testing for Invertibility in Univariate ARIMA Processes (pp. 1-7). Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE).
[22]
Greene, J., & Villanueva, D. (1991). Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 38, 33-58. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867034
[23]
Hammami, M., Ruhashyankiko, J.-F., & Yehoue, E. B. (2006). Determinants of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure (Working Paper No. 06/99). International Monetary Fund, Washington DC. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.902765
[24]
Hansen, B., & Phillips, P. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
[25]
Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development (pp. 13, 217). Yale University Press. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2307/1235188
[26]
Holtz-Eakin, D., & Schwartz, A. E. (1995). Spatial Productivity Spillovers from Public Infrastructure: Evidence from State Highways. International Tax and Public Finance, 2, 459-468. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00872777
[27]
Jacquet, P., & Charnoz, O. (2003). Infrastructure, croissance et réduction de la pauvreté (p. 6). Formum franco-vietnamien.
https://www.academia.edu/1173774/_Infrastructures_croissance_et_réduction_de_la_pauvreté
[28]
Jawad, E. (2018). Impact des dépenses publiques sur la croissance économique: Approche par le model ARDL (pp. 638-653). Maroc.
https://www.revuecca.com/index.php/home/article/view/210
[29]
Kane, C. S. (2011). Physical Infrastructures and Economic Growth in UEMOA. Economic and Monetary Review No. 9, June.
[30]
Keeler, & Ying, J. S. (1988). Measuring the Benefits of a Large Public Investment: The Case of the U.S. Federal-Aid Highway System. Journal of Public Economics, 36, 69-85.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(88)90023-0
[31]
Kocherlakota, N. R., & Yi, K. M. (1996). A Simple Time Series Test of Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth Models: An Application to the United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78, 126-134. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109852
[32]
Krugman, P. R. (1987). Is Free Trade Passe? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1, 131-144.
https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.1.2.131
[33]
Lau, P. S.-H., & Sin, C.-Y. (1997), Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Time-Series Properties and Evidence. Economic Record, 73, 125-135.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1997.tb00986.x
[34]
Lo, S. B., Ramde, F., & Diandy, I. Y. (2020). Natural Resources, Financialization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in a Global Sample. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 22. https://doi.org/10.33423/jabe.v22i8.3274
[35]
Lonzo, L. G. (2014). Taille optimale de l’Etat (20 p.). CEREG/UYII-SOA, MPRA_paper_ 60715, Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60715/
[36]
Lonzo, L. G., & Avom, D. (2014). Les effets non lineaires des dépenses publiques sur la croissance économique en rd congo. MPRA_paper_60716.
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60716/
[37]
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-427.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477
[38]
Morrison and Schwartz (1996). State Infrastructure and Productive Performance. American Economic Review, 86, 1095-1111.
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%2819961...O%3B2-M&origin=repec
[39]
Munnell, A. H. (1990). Why Has Productivity Growth Declined? Productivity and Public Investment. New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2-22.
[40]
Murphy, C. A., & Owen, S. Q. (1989). Development and Validity of the Computer Self-Efficacy Scale. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 49, 893-899.
https://doi.org/10.1177/001316448904900412
[41]
Nagaraj, G., Ciardullo, R., Bowman, W. P., & Gronwall, C. (2021). Stellar, Gas, and Dust Emission of Star-Forming Galaxies out to z～2. The Astrophysical Journal, 913, Article No. 34. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/abf1e5
[42]
NIS (2012). Enquête 1-2-3 sur l’Emploi et le Secteur Informel 2012. Kinshasa, ILO.
https://www.ilo.org/surveyLib/index.php/catalog/7795/related-materials
[43]
Ntita, N. J., Ntita, N. J.-D., & Kazadi, N. F. (2017). Investissement public et croissance économique en République Démocratique Du Congo. MPRA_paper_92905.pdf, Munich.
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/92905
[44]
Nzingoula, G. C. (2015). Les déterminants de la croissance économique en zone cemac: Une approche en données de panel. MPRA_paper_67009.pdf, Munich.
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/67009
[45]
Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical Cointegrating Regressions. Econometrica, Econometric Society, 60, 119-143. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2951679
https://doi.org/10.2307/2951679
[46]
Ratner, J. B. (1983). Government Capital and Production Function for U.S Private Output. Economic Letters, 13, 213-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(83)90088-5
[47]
Rodrik, D., & Di Tella, R. (2020). Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys. Economic Journal, 130, 1008-1030.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa006
https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/labor_market_shocks_and_demand_for_trade_protection.pdf
[48]
Romer, P. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420
[49]
Rosenstein-Rodan, P. N. (1943). Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and South Eastern Europe. Economic Journal, 53, Article ID: 202211. https://doi.org/10.2307/2226317
[50]
Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. Revue of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926047
Sturm, J. E., & De Haan, J. (1995). Is Public Expenditure Really Productive? New Evidence for the USA and the Netherlands. Economic Modelling, 12, 60-72.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(94)P4156-A
[53]
Véganzonès, M. A., & Cerdi, C. F. (2000). Infrastructures, Investissement et Croissance: Un bilan de dix années de recherches. Etudes et Documents du CERDI, 7, 40 p.
[54]
WDI (2020). World Development Indicators 2020. World Bank.
https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
[55]
World Bank (2017). World Bank Annual Report 2017. Washington DC.
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/ 143021506909711004/world-bank-annual-report-2017
[56]
Young, A. (1991). Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 369-405.
http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2937942
https://doi.org/10.2307/2937942
[57]
Zakane, A., & Sami, L. (2008). Effet d’un choc budgetaire sur les variables macroeconomiques: approche econometrique par utilisation des modeles VECM appliquee au cas de l’algerie, Les cahiers du CREAD: Revue du Centre de Recherches en Economie Appliquée pour le Développement. Alger, 83-84, 47-68.
[58]
Zergawu, Y., Walle, Y., & Giménez-Gómez, J. (2020). The Joint Impact of Infrastructure and Institutions on Economic Growth. Journal of Institutional Economics, 16, 481-502.
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137420000016
