Background/Purpose: Hispanic/Latinos in the US are at increased risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Data suggest that avocado intake is associated with better glycemic control, but whether this translates to protection from T2D has not been studied. The goal of the current analyses was to examine whether consuming avocados at baseline is associated with lower incident T2D over a six-year period, compared to not consuming avocados at baseline. Subjects/Methods: Using data from a large population of US adults with Hispanic ancestry, without known or unknown T2D at baseline (N = 6159), participants were classified as avocado consumers (N = 983) or non-consumers (N = 5176) based on the mean of two 24-hour dietary recalls. Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association of avocado consumption with incident T2D (N = 656 cases) over a six-year follow-up period, in the population as a whole, and separately in those with normoglycemia vs. prediabetes at baseline. A set of three sequential models were run: the first controlling only for sociodemographic factors (“minimally adjusted” models), the second for these and health behaviors (“fully adjusted” models), and a third for both sets of covariates and also body mass index (BMI; “fully adjusted + BMI” models). Results: In the population as a whole, avocado intake at baseline was associated with reduced incident T2D in both the minimally adjusted (hazard ratio [HR] (±95% confidence intervals [CIs]): 0.70 (0.52 - 0.94), P = 0.04) and the fully adjusted models (HR: 0.72 (0.54 - 0.97), P = 0.03). This association was observed in both those with prediabetes and with normoglycemia at baseline, but only reached significance in those with prediabetes (minimally adjusted model: HR: 0.68 (0.48 - 0.97), P = 0.03; fully adjusted model: HR: 0.69 (0.48 - 0.98), P = 0.04), not in those with normoglycemia (minimally adjusted model: HR: 0.86 (0.45 - 1.65), P = 0.65; fully adjusted model: HR: 0.80 (0.41 - 1.55), P = 0.50). In models which additionally controlled for BMI (“fully adjusted + BMI model”), the associations were slightly attenuated (overall population: HR: 0.79 (0.59 - 1.06), P = 0.60; normoglycemia: HR: 0.83 (0.42 - 1.64), P = 0.60; prediabetes: HR = 0.75 (0.54 - 1.05), P = 0.09). Conclusions: In our longitudinal analyses, adults with Hispanic/Latino ancestry who consumed avocado were less likely to develop T2D than those who did not consume avocado at baseline, especially if they had prediabetes at baseline.
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