Climate variability impacts on cocoa production are
evaluated for the first time using 31years
(1979-2010) of data from SODEXAM (climate ground-based
observations) and the ex-CAISTAB in three main cocoa production regions (Goh,
Marahoué, and Haut-Sassandra) in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The
work is a contribution to improving the quality of climate services dedicated
to cocoa cultivation to ensure producers’ income and improve the yield of the
production in the west-central part of Cote d’Ivoire. The results show that
cocoa production is affected by the changes and variability in climate
conditions (i.e. rainfall and
temperature). In the Goh region, the increase in cocoa production seems to be
mostly related to the augmentation of rainfall amount while in Marahoué, the
increase in temperature is identified to have a more significant impact. Over
the Haut-Sassandra region, both temperature and rainfall seem to have a
considerable effect on the changes in cocoa production. The analysis based on
linear regression by least-squares fit shows two characteristic modes (low and
high-frequency variability) in the relationships between cocoa production and
meteorological conditions suggesting a strong temporal signal impact related to
the changes in the emblazoned surfaces. This leads to an important impact of
the short-term variations of climate in cocoa production whereas, the influence
of the long-term variability in climate on the cocoa yield seems marginal.
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