基于GM(1,1)的山西省医疗卫生资源的现状及趋势研究
Research on Current Situation and Trend of Medical and Health Resources in Shanxi Province Based on GM(1,1)

目的：分析山西省2010~2020年医疗卫生资源现状，预测未来5年的人力、物力、财力资源发展趋势，为政府以及卫生部门的医疗资源配置决策提供决策支持。方法：描述分析山西省2010~2020年医疗卫生资源的相关数据，并在此基础上构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，对本省2021~2025年医疗卫生人力、物力、财力资源的变化趋势进行预测研究。结果：2021~2025年山西省的医疗卫生资源总体呈增长趋势，2025年全省共有16,067.43个卫生机构，年均增长率为2.26%，可为居民提供271,776.00张床位，床位年均增长率为3.94%；执业(助理)医师和注册护士人数分别为109,027.00人、159,743.05人，年均增长率分别为1.89%和6.56%，医护比为1:1.47；卫生总费用为2254.91亿元，其中政府、社会和个人卫生支出占比分别为28.52%、43.30%和28.18%。结论：山西省的医疗卫生资源总量不断上升，卫生机构建设不断加强，人力资源储备上升，但注册护士仍有较大缺口，床位资源配置有待优化。财力方面，个人卫生费用占比下降，但仍与目标水平存在差距，仍需采取有效措施优化卫生费用结构，满足人民多样化的医疗服务需求。
Objective: To analyze the current situation of medical and health resources in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2020, and to predict the development trend of human, material and financial resources in the next 5 years, so as to provide decision support for the government and health department’s medical resource allocation decision. Methods: The relevant data of medical and health resources in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2020 were described and analyzed, and the GM(1,1) grey prediction model was constructed on this basis to predict the change trend of human, material and financial resources of medical and health in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2025. Results: The medical and health resources in Shanxi Province showed an overall growth trend from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, there were 16067.43 health institutions in Shanxi Province, with an average annual growth rate of 2.26%, which could provide 271776.00 beds for residents, with an average annual growth rate of 3.94%. The number of practicing (assistant) physicians and registered nurses was 109,027.00 and 159,743.05, respectively, with an annual growth rate of 1.89% and 6.56%, respectively, and the ra-tio of medical care was 1:1.47. The total health expenditure was 225.491 billion yuan, of which gov-ernment, social and personal health expenditure accounted for 28.52%, 43.30% and 28.18%, re-spectively. Conclusions: The total amount of medical and health resources in Shanxi Province con-tinues to rise, the construction of health institutions continues to strengthen, the reserve of human resources increases, but there is still a large gap of registered nurses, and the allocation of bed re-sources needs to be optimized. In terms of financial resources, the proportion of personal health expenditure has decreased, but there is still a gap between the target level and the health ex-penditure structure. Effective measures should still be taken to optimize the health expenditure structure and meet the diverse needs of the people for medical services.