EC模式在青岛地区及其沿海地区风场预报中的适用性
Applicability of EC Model in Wind Field Forecasting in Qingdao and Its Coastal Areas

为更好地开展青岛及其沿海地区的风场服务，本文对2017~2018年的ECMWF细网格产品模式的10米风场预报在青岛及其沿海地区的适用性进行检验评估。结果表明：EC预报整体偏小，预报效果陆地站优于岸基站优于海岛站。分不同风速等级分析得出，风速误差随着风速等级增加而增大，预报准确率随风速等级增加而降低。3级以下，预报偏小，4~5级，岸基站和海岛站预报偏小，6级以上，内陆站预报偏大，海岛站预报偏小。且3级以下的风速预报，EC预报风速等级和实测风速等级相差在？1~0级之间，占65%。4~5级风速预报，内陆站、岸基站风速等级差主要集中在0~1级之间，而海岛站风速差主要集中在？1~0之间，均达到65%，6级以上陆地站风速等级差主要分布在0~1级之间，占近30%，岸基站分布在1~2级之间，占44%，而海岛站分布在？2~？1之间，占53%。利用风速等级差对2019~2020年EC预报风速进行订正后，风速准确率均有一定程度的提升，尤其对于6级以上的风速准确率提升最高，整体提高38%以上。
In order to better develop the wind field service in Qingdao and its coastal areas, this paper tests and evaluates the applicability of the ECMWF fine grid products and the 10-meter wind field forecast of the GFS model in Qingdao and its coastal areas in 2017~2018. The results show that the overall EC forecast is relatively small, and the forecast effect of land stations is better than that of shore stations and island stations. According to the analysis of different wind speed levels, the wind speed error increases with the increase of the wind speed level, and the forecast accuracy decreases with the increase of the wind speed level. Below level 3, the forecast is too small, for levels 4~5, the forecast for shore base stations and island stations is small, and for levels above 6, the forecast for inland stations is too large, and the forecast for island stations is small. And for the wind speed forecast below level 3, the difference between the EC forecast wind speed level and the measured wind speed level is between ？1 and 0, accounting for 65%. 4~5 wind speed forecast, the difference in wind speed between inland stations and shore base stations is mainly between 0 and 1, while the difference in wind speed at island stations is mainly between ？1 and 0, both reaching 65%. The wind speed grade difference between the stations is mainly distributed between 0 and 1, account-ing for nearly 30%, the shore base stations are distributed between 1 and 2, accounting for 44%, and the island stations are distributed between ？2 and ？1, accounting for 53%. After correcting the 2019~2020 EC forecast wind speed by using the wind speed grade difference, the wind speed accuracy has been improved to a certain extent, especially for the wind speed above level 6, the accuracy has been improved the most, with an overall increase of more than 38%.