帕米尔高原暴雨时空分布及灾害风险分析
Weather and Climate Characteristics and Disaster Risk Analysis of Heavy Rain in the Pamirs

利用克州三县一市46a汛期(4~9月)暴雨日数分析了暴雨的时空变化特征，利用Mann-kendll突变、Morlet小波分析了暴雨突变点及周期变化，运用ArcGIS9.3软件制作暴雨灾害空间分布图，同时提出防御措施。结果显示：1) 46a三县一市暴雨日数均呈逐年递增趋势，平原降水集中在3~5月前汛期，山区集中在7~9月后汛期。2) 突变检验来看，三县一市均发生不同程度的突变，其中乌恰突变次数最频繁，46a来发生4次突变。3) 三县一市表现为12a、14a、30a为主周期变化，突变年后除乌恰周期变化不显著以外，其它变化均表现为显著。4) 从暴雨水汽输送路径来看，主要为低槽自身携带的水汽及中亚偏南地区阿拉伯海输送的水汽为主，水汽通量及湿Q矢量物理量对暴雨发生有较好的指示意义。5) 暴雨灾害空间分布分析，暴雨次数及暴雨发生过程最大雨量均出现在阿合奇县境内，整体上由东部向西部递减，分布极不均匀。
Using the number of rainstorm days (April-September) in three counties and one city in Kezhou to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm, using mann-kendll mutation and morlet wavelet to analyze rainstorm mutation points and periodic changes, and using ArcGIS 9.3 software to make rainstorm disasters spatial distribution map, and proposed defensive measures at the same time. The results showed that: 1) The number of heavy rain days in the three counties and one city of 46 years increased year by year. The precipitation in the plains was concentrated in the flood season before March to May, and the rain in the mountainous areas was concentrated in the flood season after July to September. 2) According to mutation test, mutations of varying degrees occurred in the three counties and one city, among which Wuqia mutations were the most frequent, and 4 mutations occurred in 46 years. 3) Three counties and one city showed 12a, 14a, and 30a main cycles. After the mutation year, the changes were significant except for the Wuqia cycle that was not significant. 4) From the perspective of the rainstorm water vapor transport path, it is mainly the water vapor carried by the low trough itself and the water vapor transported by the Arabian Sea in the southern part of Central Asia. The water vapor flux and the wet q vector physical quantity have good indications for the occurrence of heavy rain. 5) Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainstorm disasters. Both the number of rainstorms and the maximum rainfall in the process of rainstorms occurred in Aheqi County, and the overall distribution decreased from the east to the west, and the distribution was extremely uneven.