双碳目标下山东省交通运输脱碳路径研究
Research on the Road of Transportation Decarbonization from Shandong Province under Carbon Target

山东省作为我国人口大省、工业制造业强省，打造绿色低碳的能源系统是实现交通运输碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键举措。交通运输碳排放在我省碳排放总量中占比较大，且伴随经济的发展仍处在逐年增加的状态，低碳发展已成为交通运输脱碳目标的首要任务。本文采用LMDI因素分解法，对2003~2020年山东省交通运输的碳排放现状和主要特点进行分析，并参考、借鉴国家与省地方政策、其他学者研究成果及产业特点，提出符合山东省发展方向的交通运输脱碳发展路径。研究表明，山东省需要通过进一步提升铁路、水运的货运占比来降低能源强度，提高清洁能源使用优化能源结构等多方面开展工作，尽早实现交通运输脱碳。
Shandong Province, as a large population province and industrial manufacturing province in China, creating a green and low-carbon energy system is a key measure to achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. Transportation carbon emissions accounted for a large amount of carbon emissions in Shandong Province, development of the economy is still increasing year by year, the low-carbon development has become the primary task of the transportation decarbonization. This research adopts LMDI factor decomposition method, analyze the current status and main characteristics of carbon emissions and main characteristics of Shandong Province from 2003 to 2020. Refer to national and provincial local policies, other scholars’ research results and industrial characteristics, put forward the development path of transportation from the development direction of Shandong Province. Under the target of decarbonization, Shandong Province needs to reduce energy intensity by further improving the proportion of freight in railway and water transportation, improve clean energy utilization, optimize the energy structure and more levels to realize transportation decarbonization as soon as possible.