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未来乐观偏差：意志归因的时间不对称
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Abstract:
人们倾向于对未来事件持有过于乐观的信念。一方面，它使人们对自己在过去基本失败领域的未来表现仍保持信心，另一方面使人们低估自身遇到风险的可能性而造成判断失误，不自觉推迟完成任务。对未来的过度自信是由一系列的动机和认知因素决定的，包括自我提升动机以及对过去和未来事件的认知。本文旨在探讨未来乐观偏差的产生原因及影响因素，并在此基础上进一步明确未来的研究方向。
People tend to hold overly optimistic beliefs about what lies ahead. On the one hand, it allows people to remain confident in their future performance in domains where they have largely failed in the past; on the other hand, it makes people underestimate the likelihood that they will encounter risks resulting in errors in judgment and unconscious delays in completing tasks. Overconfidence in the future is determined by a range of motivational and cognitive factors, including self-improvement motivation and perceptions of past and future events. The purpose of this paper is to explore the causes and influencing factors of future optimism bias and to further clarify future research directions based on them.
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