鲁中地区冬季设施西瓜最低气温变化特征及预报模型研究
Study on the Minimum Temperature Change Characteristics and Forecast Model of Winter Facilities Watermelon in Central Shandong

本文利用山东省潍坊市昌乐县西瓜大棚小气候观测站数据，通过对冬季西瓜温室大棚内、外的最低气温变化特征，采取逐步回归方法，构建冬季西瓜大棚最低气温预报模型，并对模型进行验证。结果表明，棚内最低气温始终高于棚外，且棚外气温越低时，棚内、外气温差异越大；不同天气条件下，各模型实测值和模拟值的平均绝对误差在1.1℃~1.3℃之间，拟合效果较好。
Based on the data of the watermelon greenhouse microclimate observation station in Changle County, Weifang City, Shandong Province, this paper adopts the stepwise regression method to build the winter watermelon greenhouse minimum temperature prediction model and verify the model. The results showed that the lowest temperature inside the shed was always higher than that outside the shed, and the lower the air temperature outside the shed, the greater the difference between the air temperature inside and outside the shed; under different weather conditions, the average absolute error of the measured and simulated values of each model is between 1.1 ？C and 1.3 ？C, and the fitting effect is good.