|
|
事件史分析技术在灾难心理学研究中的应用
|
Abstract:
事件史分析是研究某一事件发生及其影响因素的计量方法，有一些独特的概念。本文阐述了社会科学研究中的事件史分析主要处理有“删截”特征的面板数据，尤长于将时变变量纳入模型。而灾难心理学学科尚在发展之中，主要研究灾难前心理教育、灾难中心理救援、灾难后心理干预，以及与之相关的心理和行为规律。运用事件史分析探究与灾难和创伤紧密相关的精神疾病、心身疾病、自杀与非自杀性自伤等问题具有潜力。
Event history analysis is a measurement method that studies an event and its influencing factors. There are some special concepts. This paper explains that event history analysis in social science research mainly deals with panel data with “truncated” characteristics, especially the inclusion of time-varying variables into the model. Disaster psychology is still developing, mainly studying pre-disaster psychological education, psychological rescue in disaster, post-disaster psychological intervention, and related psychological and behavioral rules. It has the potential to use event history analysis to explore mental illness, psychosomatic diseases, suicide and non-suicidal self-injury closely related to disasters and trauma.
| [1] | 安媛媛, 伍新春, 陈杰灵, 林崇德(2014). 美国9？11事件对个体心理与群体行为的影响——灾难心理学视角的回顾与展望. 北京师范大学学报(社会科学版), (6), 5-13. |
| [2] | 曾迪洋(2014). 生命历程理论视角下劳动力迁移对初婚年龄的影响. 社会, 34(5), 105-126. |
| [3] | 陈思路, 季卫东, 方怡儒, 吴彦, 张伟, 高炬(2014). 首次诊断双相障碍患者的生存分析. 上海交通大学学报(医学版), 34(4), 446-449. |
| [4] | 崔伟锋, 刘萧萧, 韩静旖, 范军铭(2020). 原发性高血压病心血管风险因素分析. 中国全科医学, 23(22), 2797-2803. |
| [5] | 杜本峰(2008). 事件史分析及其应用. 经济科学出版社. |
| [6] | 郭志刚(2015). 社会统计分析方法: SPSS软件应用. 中国人民大学出版社. |
| [7] | 李强, 徐刚, 陈丽梅(2019). 生存分析的应用误区. 中国人口科学, (1), 101-112. |
| [8] | 李诗晨, 朱熊兆, 贺婧, 李玲艳, 王瑜萍, 李敏洪, 等(2018). 术后正负性情绪对女性乳腺癌患者预后的影响. 中国临床心理学杂志, 26(2), 383-386. |
| [9] | 刘永有, 曾岳峰, 王增珍(2004). 心理干预预防毒品复吸的效果分析. 中国药物滥用防治杂志, (6), 321-324. |
| [10] | 刘宇平, 郭笑, 白舒靓, 莫能嘉, 张卓, 杨波(2019). 强戒人员童年创伤经历对攻击性的影响：链式中介效应分析. 中国临床心理学杂志, 27(4), 731-735. |
| [11] | 罗胜兰, 俞敏(2013). 生存分析的方法及应用. 浙江预防医学, 25(5), 29-31. |
| [12] | 宁维卫(2011). 灾难心理学: 灾区学校青少年心理教育与危机干预. 西南交通大学出版社. |
| [13] | 时勘(2010). 灾难心理学. 科学出版社. |
| [14] | 汪作为, 王亚光, 方芳, 陆志萍, 王萍, 方贻儒(2012). 认知行为教育和自我管理预防抑郁症复发恶化的效果. 中华行为医学与脑科学杂志, (12), 1095-1097. |
| [15] | 王雪艳, 张丽萍(2013). 灾难心理学学科体系初探. 吉林医药学院学报, 34(5), 350-352. |
| [16] | 吴杲, 杨东涛(2015). 无边界职涯背景下的离职: 重回决策者中心. 心理科学进展, 23(2), 289-302. |
| [17] | 杨超, 傅岳文, 张莉, 卢卓丽, 古丽巴哈(2017). 电休克治疗对儿童双相情感障碍躁狂发作患者的影响. 中国健康心理学杂志, 25(12), 1777-1780. |
| [18] | 杨辉, 石人炳(2019). 青年婚前同居对其初婚风险的影响. 青年研究, (5), 63-74. |
| [19] | 姚坚, 黄悦勤, 阮冶, 卢瑾, 高长青, 党卫民, 等(2010). 昆明市情感障碍流行病学调查. 中国心理卫生杂志, 24(2), 110-115. |
| [20] | 赵俊雄, 张载福(2000). 抑郁症年复发率及相关因素分析. 健康心理学杂志, (3), 293-295. |
| [21] | Allison, P. D. (2014). Event History and Survival Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data. SAGE Publications.
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452270029 |
| [22] | Ampaw, F. D., & Jaeger, A. J. (2012). Completing the Three Stages of Doctoral Education: An Event History Analysis. Research in Higher Education, 53, 640-660. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-011-9250-3 |
| [23] | Blossfeld, H., Rohwer, G., & Schneider, T. (2019). Event History Analysis with Stata. Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429260407 |
| [24] | Blumenthal, J. A., Lett, H. S., Babyak, M. A., White, W., Smith, P. K., Mark, D. B. et al. (2003). Depression as a Risk Factor for Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery. The Lancet, 362, 604-609.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14190-6 |
| [25] | Boscarino, J. A. (2006). Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Mortality among US Army Veterans 30 Years after Military Service. Annals of Epidemiology, 16, 248-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2005.03.009 |
| [26] | Clatts, M. C., Goldsamt, L., Yi, H., & Gwadz, M. V. (2005). Homelessness and Drug Abuse among Young Men Who Have Sex with Men in New York City: A Preliminary Epidemiological Trajectory. Journal of Adolescence, 28, 201-214.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2005.02.003 |
| [27] | Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression Models and Life-Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 34, 187-202. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.x |
| [28] | Gandhi, A., Luyckx, K., Baetens, I., Kiekens, G., Sleuwaegen, E., Berens, A. et al. (2018). Age of Onset of Non-Suicidal Self-Injury in Dutch-Speaking Adolescents and Emerging Adults: An Event History Analysis of Pooled Data. Comprehensive Psychiatry, 80, 170-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comppsych.2017.10.007 |
| [29] | Grendas, L. N., Rojas, S. M., Puppo, S., Vidjen, P., Portela, A., Chiapella, L., Daray, F. M. et al. (2019). Interaction between Prospective Risk Factors in the Prediction of Suicide Risk. Journal of Affective Disorders, 258, 144-150.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2019.07.071 |
| [30] | Guo, S. (2010). Survival Analysis. Oxford University Press. |
| [31] | Lee, W., Noh, K., Lee, S. H., & Lee, C. (2019). Responsibility and Recidivism: An Event History Analysis of South Korean Juvenile Cases. Children and Youth Services Review, 98, 154-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2018.12.003 |
| [32] | Lipien, L., & Forthofer, M. S. (2004). An Event History Analysis of Recurrent Child Maltreatment Reports in Florida. Child Abuse & Neglect, 28, 947-966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2004.03.011 |
| [33] | Maggs, J. L., Staff, J., Patrick, M. E., & Wray-Lake, L. (2019). Very Early Drinking: Event History Models Predicting Alcohol Use Initiation from Age 4 to 11 Years. Addictive Beha-viors, 89, 121-127.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2018.09.030 |
| [34] | Mou, Y., & Lin, C. A. (2020). Consuming Alcohol to Prepare for Adulthood: An Event History Analysis of the Onset of Alcohol Use among Chinese College Students. SAGE Open, 10, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020939911 |
| [35] | Nelson, E. C., Heath, A. C., Madden, P. A., Cooper, M. L., Dinwiddie, S. H., Bucholz, K. K. et al. (2002). Association between Self-Reported Childhood Sexual Abuse and Adverse Psychosocial Outcomes: Results from a Twin Study. Archives of General Psychiatry, 59, 139-145. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.59.2.139 |
| [36] | ？ien-？degaard, C., Hauge, L. J., & Reneflot, A. (2021). Marital Status, Educational Attainment, and Suicide Risk: A Norwegian Register-Based Population Study. Population Health Metrics, 19, 1-11.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-021-00263-2 |
| [37] | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Population and Development Review, 27, 365-367. |
| [38] | Russell, B. S., Trudeau, J., & Britner, P. A. (2008). Intervention Type Matters in Primary Prevention of Abusive Head Injury: Event History Analysis Results. Child Abuse & Neglect, 32, 949-957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2008.05.002 |
| [39] | Smith, D. B., & Tonidandel, S. (2003). Taking Account of Time: The Application of Event History Analysis to Leadership Research. The Leadership Quarterly, 14, 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1048-9843(03)00010-9 |
| [40] | Sorensen, A. B. (1977). Estimating Rates from Retrospective Questions. Sociological Methodology, 8, 209-223.
https://doi.org/10.2307/270757 |
| [41] | Tuma, N. B., Hannan, M. T., & Groeneveld, L. P. (1979). Dynamic Analysis of Event Histories. American Journal of Sociology, 84, 820-854. https://doi.org/10.1086/226863 |
| [42] | Zhang, N., Wu, K., Zhang, Y., Liu, Z., & Zhou, X. (2020). Psychological Predictors of Posttraumatic Growth among Adult Survivors of Wenchuan Earthquake in China. Asian Journal of Psychiatry, 53, Article ID: 102309.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102309 |
