典型山区城市化进程对河流水文效应分析
Analysis of the Hydrological Effect of the Urbanization Process in Typical Mountainous Areas on Rivers

浙江地处我国东南沿海地区，地形以山区居多，城市化进程与其特点密不可分，而城市化的发展对河流水文效应产生了一定的影响，本文通过对河道径流变化来反映流域水文效应变化情况：对流域的降雨、气温及植被对径流的影响分析并利用MIKE SHE模型对流域不同下垫面情况的径流进行模拟。研究结果显示流域的径流主要由降雨产生，不论是周期性还是趋势线，降雨和径流均具有高度的一致性；通过MIKE SHE模拟的三场洪水洪峰流量平均增大9.4%，洪量平均增大7.7%；其他因素不变时，当降雨增加10%，径流量增加6.16%，叶面积指数扩大10倍，对径流量影响为4.44%。因此，城市化进程与林地、草地保护之间的矛盾日益突出，整体性洪水风险有所增大。
Zhejiang Province is in the southeast coastal area of China, with mountainous areas as the main terrain, and the urbanization process is inseparable from its characteristics. The development of urbanization has certain influence on the hydrological effect of rivers. This paper reflects the change of hydrological effect of river basin through the change of river runoff: the impact analysis of rainfall, temperature, and vegetation on runoff of the basin and uses MIKE SHE models to simulate runoff under different underlying surface conditions of the basin. The results show that the runoff of the catchment is mainly generated by rainfall, and both rainfall and runoff are highly consistent, whether periodic or trend line. The peak discharge and flood volume of the three floods simulated by MIKE SHE increased by 9.4% and 7.7% respectively on average. When other factors remain unchanged, when rainfall increases by 10%, runoff increases by 6.16%, and leaf area index increases by 10 times, the impact on runoff is 4.44%. Therefore, the contradiction between urbanization process and forest land and grassland protection is increasingly prominent, which increases the overall flood risk.