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基于水力学模型和综合风险度的洪水风险区划
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Abstract:
洪水灾害风险区划是洪灾评估与管理的重要内容。本文以江西省兴国县为例，采用MIKE软件构建二维水力学模型，对研究区进行了多重现期洪水风险要素分析。在数值模拟成果的基础上，综合考虑最大淹没水深、最大行进流速、最大淹没历时等洪水风险要素指标，利用融合不同洪水频率的区划方法，对研究区进行了洪水风险区划，同时采用了最大水深 × 最大流速法进行了对比验证。结果表明，淹没范围较大、洪灾风险较高的区域集中于潋水和濊水交汇处以及下游乡村部分区域，洪灾对上游兴国县城的影响较小；综合风险度法更能全面直观地反映多重现期的洪水风险空间分布特征，为洪水风险管理、防洪减灾规划等决策部门提供理论依据和技术支撑。
Flood hazard risk zoning is an important element of flood assessment and management. In this paper, taking Xingguo County of Jiangxi Province as an example, a two-dimensional hydraulic model was con-structed using MIKE software to analyze the multi-recurrence flood risk elements in the study area. Based on the results of numerical simulation, a zoning method integrating different flood frequencies was employed to zone the flood risk area, with considering flood risk elements such as maximum inun-dation depth, maximum flow velocity, maximum inundation duration. At the same time, the maximum water depth plus maximum flow velocity method was used for comparison and verification. Results show that the confluence of Lianshui River and Huishui River and the downstream villages are more vulnerable to flood disaster than the Xingguo central area, with larger inundation area and higher flood risk. The comprehensive risk degree method can comprehensively and intuitively reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of flood risk in flood scenarios of multiple recurrence periods, and could provide theoretical basis and technical support for the decision-making departments of flood risk management, flood prevention and mitigation planning.
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